Low-End Severe Weather Threat Overnight Wednesday Into Thursday Morning
Tuesday, February 4, 2025 · Elan
We have been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center with:
- a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
- a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
for Wednesday – Thursday morning.
Although this is relatively a very low threat for severe weather, it isn’t zero – so let’s discuss.
Tomorrow throughout the day, moisture and instability will gradually increase – especially as we get closer to the evening.
This, along with an increase in shear will help set us up for our low-end severe weather threat. Although the CAPE (storm fuel/instability) and lift do not look particularly impressive – thus, the fairly low + conditional threat, but not zero.
“Even with all the limitations, mention of the severe risk seems reasonable given the conditional potential- meaning IF any strong cells form and become surface based, strong wind gusts will be possible and unfortunately, a tornado cannot be ruled out…” – NWS Nashville Area Forecast Discussion
Timing:
Latest models indicate that our timeframe for any severe weather potential would be from 10p Wednesday – 6a Thursday. Timeframe is broad right now due to some uncertainty and is subject to change!
The 18z HRRR model gives its best guess, loop goes from 11p Wednesday thru 11a Thursday.
*This is just one run of one model – and the radar will likely not look exactly like this but gives a decent general idea.
Note: We could also see some rain, maybe a thunderstorm, Wednesday afternoon thru early evening but not concerned about severe weather with this “round.”
On/off showers could also continue thru the day on Thursday – but think the severe threat will diminish due to our atmosphere getting worked over – although this will have to be watched.
What To Do:
Keep an eye on the forecast! We are still 24+ hours out from this event (or non-event), and a lot will likely change between now and tomorrow evening. More model data will be coming in to give us a better idea of things, and confidence will increase.
It’s been a while since we’ve dealt with any severe threat – and with this potentially being an overnight thing, now is a good time to check those Weather Radios, your wake-me-up apps and to make sure your Wireless Emergency Alerts are turned on. You might not need it tomorrow, but Spring is slowly approaching!
More rain/storm chances arrive Saturday/Sunday, but we are not outlooked with any severe chances right now. More deets on this later.
Temperatures will continue to be above average until Sunday, when we all get a reality check.
The Climate Prediction Center is calling for an unsettled and active weather pattern mid to late next week – highlighting us with a 40 – 60% chance of Heavy Precipitation, and some flooding potential from the 12th – 15th. This is quite a way out there, but something to keep an eye on.
