Probabilities
Tornado Watch In Effect Until 1100PM
Severe Weather Expected This Afternoon/Evening
Severe Weather Timing per NWS Nashville
Good morning, all. We are expecting strong to severe thunderstorms today, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) possible. Latest runs of the HRRR show that between mid-afternoon and early evening will be our best opportunity for menacing storms to race across Middle Tennessee:
ETA, Hazards, and Uncertainties: Monday’s Hail, Damaging Winds, & Tornado Risk.
When
1 PM to 5 PM Monday.
Obviously, this risk will occur during school dismissal and the evening commute.
What
Hail, and/or damaging thunderstorm winds, and/or tornadoes.
In the order of likelihood, assuming we get a storm: (1) Hail–most likely. (2) Damaging thunderstorm winds–next most likely. (3) Tornadoes–third most likely. Hail is not that much more likely than tornadoes, though. Consult the below chart from NWS-Nashville:
Severe Weather Concerns Monday; No-Worries Snow Potential Tuesday Night
Quickly, about today, we’re not expecting rain. We may see light rain show up late tonight. Here’s the HRRR model’s prediction thru 11 PM:
Monday’s Severe Weather Concerns
The Storm Prediction Center issues outlooks for severe weather. Six categories for severe weather are used, beginning at general, non-severe thunderstorms, and running all the way from 1 through 5, with five being the “worst.”
A Forecast Worth Watching. Has “Bracket-Bust” Potential, Though.
Partly Sunny, Clouds Still Hang Out With Us Today
GOES East Loop This Morning
*Geek out moment*: Notice that band of clouds over Northwest Tennessee? That’s out ahead of a cold front! This front will slide through the area today bringing cooler (but not terribly cold) air for tomorrow. As long as we get intermittent sunshine today, temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 70s.
Warm and Rainy Weekend
Rainy Friday
The HRRR model for the mid afternoon today. It is one of the more spatially-accurate models. This shows where the low pressure center is not very organized and most of the rain will miss the Nashville area.
Sunshine – Here Today, Gone Tomorrow
Pretty Great Thursday
The early afternoon hours are expected to be breezy with winds out of the WSW until the winds shift into the SE on Friday when the rain begins to arrive.
Rain Coming Friday Night
Current rain ETA is around 7 PM Friday night. At least that’s what the NAM3 model thinks:
Warm Tomorrow, Storms by the Weekend
Good morning Nashville!
The sun will continue to shine on Williamson and Davidson Counties today! We are looking at a high of around 50. Winds will be around 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow, though, is going to feel awesome outside! The sun will continue as highs rise into the mid to upper 60s. Enjoy these two days, because, by the time Friday rolls around, rain will return to the forecast.
Cold Tuesday and Wednesday, but Warmth is on the Way
Today
The cold temperatures will hang around for a day or two more as a high pressure system funnels cold, north air down into the area. Today there will be some clouds, but the sunshine breaking through will allow for very slight warming, as the high won’t reach 50 degrees. Keep a warm sweater nearby because as the sun sets, the temperatures will fall to below freezing!
Snow this morning, followed by a blustery day
Good morning Nashville! Alex Forbes here this morning and I am thrilled to say I will be joining NashSevereWx on a regular basis! Now to today’s forecast…
Today
Did you catch a snow shower this morning? We didn’t get much in Williamson and Davidson Counties, a dusting at best, because our temperatures stayed above freezing. However the further north you go, and out on the plateau, you will find higher snow amounts and a few minor travel impacts. The snow is done, giving way to a partly cloudy, and blustery, 48° day. Winds could reach 15-20 mph.
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