Severe Weather Expected This Afternoon/Evening

Posted on by Brendan Schaper

Severe Weather Timing per NWS Nashville

Good morning, all. We are expecting strong to severe thunderstorms today, with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) possible. Latest runs of the HRRR show that between mid-afternoon and early evening will be our best opportunity for menacing storms to race across Middle Tennessee:

Latest HRRR Loop

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Davidson/Williamson Counties under an “Enhanced Risk” (3 out of 0-5 scale) for severe thunderstorms today. The individual breakdowns of each hazard (hail, wind, tornado) are outlined below:

SPC Convective Outlook for Tennessee

Expected Hazards

Hail Threat – HATCHED AREA…10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point, otherwise 15% probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Damaging Wind Threat – 15% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Tornado Threat – HATCHED AREA…10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point, otherwise 10% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Uncertainty…

Dewpoints. Right now we are around 48 degrees, while models suggest we will surge into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by this afternoon. If that happens, our atmosphere will be more than primed for severe thunderstorms. However, if dewpoints stay down, that would help our case in lowering the severe weather threat.

Overall, areas to our south have an even greater potential for severe storms and tornadoes. On the contrary, we will have a very precise window of opportunity this afternoon/evening for rotating, vigorous thunderstorms.

Schools are releasing early for a reason. If you have plans to be out and about this afternoon/evening…

Pay close attention to frequent weather updates from multiple media sources. Reduce travel if at all possible. Have a safe place in mind to go if you get severe storm/tornado warned. Helmets, blankets, anything to protect you from projectiles (flying debris) will only be to your advantage.

We will provide further updates throughout the day today here on the blog and much more frequently @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Thanks for sticking with us.