The rain lottery returns this afternoon:
Rain and storms are expected to randomly pop up around mid-afternoon. Exactly when and where is unknown. Once they pop up, they won’t move much. They should end by early evening. Here’s the HRRR model’s illustration through 11 PM tonight:
This morning we had some showers hanging around our area. This widespread cloud coverage is what’s going to keep our temps from getting too high today.
Dewpoints are still relatively high today, they’ve crept into the upper 60s. Today is going to be humid!
Good morning Nashville! We are moving back into the summertime pattern with hit or miss showers and storms all day. It looks like coverage will be fairly good for the daytime hours, dying out by sunset. HRRR illustrates. A couple of these storms could be on the strong side, so stay aware if you have plans outside today. The good news is that these should be “pulse” storms, and organized severe weather is not expected.
High pressure has built into Tennessee, keeping the clouds away.
The HRRR model, below, shows some rain forming all around us, but nothing in Davidson or Williamson Counties.
Without clouds to shade us, temps are going to hang around in the 80s for much of the day, topping around 90, and although it’ll still be humid, it won’t be as humid as it was yesterday.
A high-pressure system has moved into the Ohio River Valley. It’s working to suppress our rain chances. We suppose a shower or two today is remotely possible, but we think that’s really unlikely. We remain hot, with temperatures in the upper 80s, and humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Hot, sticky, and sweaty is the theme for the day. High temps aren’t expected to creep out of the low 80s and dewpoints will be stationed in the mid 60s.
Again, by the early afternoon we are looking at widespread showers throughout our area.
Showers and storms are possible again today, but they will be hit or miss for us in Williamson and Davidson Counties.
If we get a shower, rainfall could be as high as an inch again today because the PWAT (precipitable water) values are expected around 1.6″ to 1.7″.
This afternoon, a severe thunderstorm developed in Maury County. By late afternoon, rain cooled air from that thunderstorm raced north and set off severe thunderstorms in Williamson then Davidson Counties. Hardest hit was Belle Meade and surrounding communities. High winds brought down trees and power was lost. We got several reports of small hail. Torrential rains caused localized flooding.
It’s uncertainty season.
Here’s one reason why ETAs and rain/no rain questions about your outdoor event are very difficult to answer with confidence.
Remember in elementary school when you were hopefully taught rain is basically just a tall cloud. The taller the cloud, the more water it has. When it gets tall and big enough, the water it has is too heavy to stay suspended in the cloud, so the water falls. That’s rain.
Good news! Looks like today will be a bit drier compared to what we’ve had the last couple of days.
We do have some model agreement that today will feature less coverage of pop-up showers. This comes from a weak ridge that will be building into our region late today.
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