It’ll probably rain a little before midnight tonight, no big deal.
Models indicate snow Friday night lasting off and on overnight into Saturday morning.
What Time?
Rain is expected to change to snow Friday night between 9 PM and midnight:
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Light Rain Thursday Night, (Low Confidence) Wintry Precip Friday Night
Slight Chance of Rain on Thursday Night, Light Rain/Snow Chance on Saturday.
About Yesterday, then Looking Ahead to the Weekend
(Sunday’s forecast for Monday’s snow wasn’t horrible, wasn’t great. Looked like SE Will Co could get clipped and that’s what happened. The “place” forecast was good, the “amount” forecast was not. All the models “missed” this event, a reminder that weather models are not forecasts. Forecasts are not truth. Future prediction is hard. The arrogant forecast will be humbled. –David.)
It’s Snowing!!! (In some places)
It has been a tale of two counties this morning
Parts of Williamson County have picked up an inch…
Even nearing 2 inches near Thompson Station..
Those in Davidson County haven’t been as lucky
Moisture that has infiltrated Williamson has been losing the battle with the dry air north of I-40 in Davidson County.
Doesn’t Look Good, Snow Fans
Confidence is “low to medium” (NWS-Nashville) in forecast accuracy for snow Monday.
Variables include:
- Temperatures. South of us, snow is likely Monday morning. We may be too far north to get snow. Snow may not even extend into Will Co, much less Nashville, but it’ll be close. If snow gets far enough north, by mid-morning surface temps may warm into the mid-30s, causing any flakes to splat:melt. It may even get warm enough to change snow to rain. Noon temps around 35, upper 30s possible Monday afternoon.
- Moisture. Most moisture will be well south of us. We will get the northern edge. If we had more moisture incoming, temps wouldn’t rise as fast. But moisture is limited, so those at elevation (hills, on bridges and overpasses) may be the only spots cold enough to collect snow. There’s just not enough “stuff” there to tap to make a good snow event.
NWS-Nashville make no changes to its snow total forecast. Under a half inch, which includes us getting nothing. Most of those north of I-40 get shut out:
Low Expectations for Snow Monday
Cold Rain (Maybe Some Snowflakes) Possible Monday
Low Confidence Chance of Snow Monday
Snow Chance Tonight and Friday, Maybe Even on Monday
Snow Potential Tonight And Friday Morning
The real story here is that rain will begin pretty soon. JK the real story is that there is a non-zero chance of snow tonight and tomorrow morning. Let’s dive in…
After the afternoon rain event today (mainly after 5pm), temperatures will drop below freezing and that rain will transition into a rain/snow mix.
Nashville, although, is only expected to see less than half an inch. If anything, we will just get a dusting.
In general, impacts remain low. Temps should hover just a little bit above freezing at the surface in Nashville, but in the hollers, if it’s colder, bridges and overpasses could be impacted. Regardless, if you plan on traveling anywhere tonight or tomorrow morning, be cautious!
Let’s take a look at forecast models.
The Euro model (above) shows the snow Friday staying to the east. Other models show lingering moisture and weak lift which should be enough for some areas to see flurries.
Here’s what the NWS says…
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEST OF I-65 AND LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY THEREAFTER. AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S BEFORE 9 PM, AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PLATEAU MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES SOONER, AND SEE ALL SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOULD TEMPS COOL OFF A BIT SOONER AREA WIDE, WE MAY SEE MORE SNOW, AND IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, SHOULD TEMPS STAY WARMER, SNOW WILL BE DELAYED AND AMOUNTS WOULD DECREASE.