Editor’s Note: On this day in 1917, Nashville received 7 1/2 inches of snow. Give yourself about 30 seconds to immerse yourself in that scene, then proceed with reading this awesome forecast.
Warming up nicely out of the 40’s today with lots of sunshine.
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Compassionate Grit
One year ago, many of us were beginning to understand the magnitude of what had happened. We had watched the horrific scene of a strong tornado moving through our city live on our screens hours before, but this wasn’t your average tornado video off YouTube. It was our city, our home, our friends, our neighbors.
Blow Away Black Tornado, a personal note a year later.
The supercell appeared on radar a year ago tonight. By 12:33 AM Tuesday March 3, 2020, that [expletive deleted] was here. You know what happened.
I was behind screens watching radar, data, internal chat, typing furiously in surreal horror. Since then I’ve watched and read everything I could find about that tornado. I’ve been back through the radar data. I’ve reviewed the meteorology. I’ve reviewed every tweet I sent and every frame of video footage I could find. I’ve looked at, and walked in, stood in and looked up through, your damage. Many, many times. Trying to process it, to understand it, to be better. I’ve even written a retrospective.
Dry Times Ahead, Rain Iffy Tuesday Night
The First Week of March We Need
Storms Today & Tonight: Tornado, Damaging Straight Line Winds, Hail, and Flash Flooding Risks Discussed
Rain And A Chance For Severe Weather Explained
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has given us a Slight Risk for Sunday afternoon, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather.
Sunday
As mentioned above, spc put us in a slight risk for Sunday. The main concerns are flooding, and a non-zero chance of brief Tornados, damaging wind, and small hail. This isn’t some widespread severe weather event, but it has us interested enough to write a special blog to discuss it. So let’s dig in.
10z HRRR Reflectivity Loop
Above, the HRRR model is running through Sunday night. A storm complex riding a cool front comes our way Sunday afternoon. Exact timing is still a little unsteady, but we think it will be Sunday evening for the “main event”.
We know it will bring us lots of rain.
The above graphic is showing a forecasted amount of multiple inches, and that has triggered a flood watch through Monday morning. Creeks, rivers, drainage ditches will remain full and may exceed flood guidance, triggering flood warnings tomorrow night. An isolated 4″ of rain for some us is not out of the question. Flash flooding will be of most concern in areas that receive a lot of rain yesterday. Creek and river levels can be checked here… NashSevereWX Flood Resources
A flood advisory will like remain in effect through 6pm Wednesday.
Severe Threat
It’s low. But it’s not zero and the greater threat exists if there isn’t a cloud deck in place tomorrow afternoon. The setup Sunday is going to be influenced by storm fuel (heat + instability).
Here’s what the NWS said in their Saturday afternoon AFD…
Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences.
Storms on the Horizon Today through Monday Morning, Some Could be Strong or Severe.
Storms on the Horizon this Afternoon
Heavy localized rainfall and thunderstorms remain for the majority of the afternoon into tonight. The producer for this lineup is caused by a developing warm front moving northward over the area.
Mostly spotty showers and passing light rain will prevail from now until the late afternoon. The heaviest of rain does not appear to move over Nashville until around 8 PM tonight.
Rain Friday, Rain Saturday, Rain Sunday, Rain Monday.
It’s Gonna Rain
While ever-shrinking piles of plowed snow hang around to remind us of the big snow that was, we look ahead to a multi-inch rain that could bring flooding.
It wasn’t too long ago we were looking at snow accumulation maps that resembled this, but rain in these amounts is a different ballgame. Much more water will fall from the sky and will likely run right off into local ponds, streams, creeks and rivers due to the saturated ground.