Low pressure over Arkansas is bringing us rain for the next couple days.
HRRR shows a line of showers moving in this afternoon after lunch. As instability builds, the rain blob will break apart into scattered showers and off and on thunderstorms. Lightning possible. Timing is difficult for any one location. These models run hourly, each run has a different idea.
Blame an upper level low spinning over Texas for wretched humidity and “will it, or won’t it, on and off rain and storms” this week. We can’t reliably time out whether or when it’ll rain because no frontal boundaries will be there to initiate storm-o-genesis. The result: difficult outdoor planning. Disorganized “may contain lightning” storms may be streaking by.
A frontal passage from early this morning cleared the showers and storms out of our area. High pressure is centered over our region today and will keep the weather dry and sunny. HRRR expects no rain in the Davidson and Williamson Co. area. It does show some small showers pop up briefly around 5 PM, but they go around us.
The troughing pattern that brought us scattered showers and storms yesterday is still in full swing today. What does that mean for us? This morning it brought us more of the same: rain, and plenty of it. It will continue to do so throughout the afternoon. The HRRR expects it will leave us alone at last this evening.
This morning’s sounding is showing a lot of moisture moving into the area that will help to generate thunderstorms, some severe. Up to this point, there hasn’t been much more than spotty showers. There is a break in the rain for now, but prepare for severe weather to ramp up as instability increases into the afternoon. Good news! This event is not expected to be widespread. The main concern with these storms is straight-line winds, but tornadoes are not outside of the realm of possibility . We are currently at a 2% probability for tornadoes and 5% probability for T-storm winds exceeding about 60 mph. Chances of hail are negligible.
Jason was born in Nashville. He graduated from Franklin High School. He spent a few semesters at ETSU, where he met Ashley. He joined the Army and married Ashley and they moved to Ft. Bliss after he finished basic training. They planned a formal wedding after he returned from Afghanistan. Jason had a boxer, Charlie. He rode motorcycles, played tennis. And when his country asked him to go, he went.
