Models are like your next-door neighbors. You think they are good people, and you feel like you can somewhat trust them. But then you hear that one story about them from ’08 and you start reconsidering everything you’ve ever thought about them.
Category: Featured Blog
Super Soaking Rain This Morning, Maybe More This Weekend?
Some real drought busting rain moving through this morning. Watch out for water over roads and as always, turn around, don’t drown.
HRRR model thinks the current rain moves out by a bit after lunchtime. It then thinks, emphasis on thinks, we stay clear for the remainder of the day. I have my doubts about this, our atmosphere will still be water-loaded. The Wattery may hand out more winning tickets, and they may not be as rare as the one-billion-dollar winning ticket. Outdoor planners stay connected and informed but so far looks okay. If storms do form, more chances of flash flooding and a low probability of a strong storm or two. Not worried about tornadoes.
A Lot More Chances For Rain. Also Drought Update.
Low-Probability Of Flash Flooding + Damaging Winds On Repeat
Today Might Be The Day For Yardwork, Rain Comin’ This Week
It may not rain in the traditional sense today while yardworking, but you’ll be sweating on your greens if you do, does that count as watering?
Most of the rain will probably (?) stay north of us today (or maybe not? keep reading), which is good news for us, but has created serious flash flooding in St. Louis and surrounding areas. 8″+ of rain in and around St. Louis prompted a Flash Flood Emergency, which you may know that term from our March 2021 flash flooding. If you know anyone in that area, give them a shout and check in on them.
“Likely” Rain/Storms, Maybe Too Much? Excessive Heat Begone.
If I had 3 words to sum up the next 7 days…
Thankfully I don’t have a word limit.
Rain this morning is staying to our north in Kentucky.
HRRR model (above) thinks those morning showers fizzle out up there, and it’s not until this afternoon when winning Wattery tickets are handed out. More storms also expected to form after sunset. Storm Prediction Center removed us from any severe weather chances, including tornadoes, lightning is possible with any of the storms, which is enough to alter outdoor plans.
Today’s Heat Advisory Air Quotes Canceled; Rain/Storm Hazard Potential Monday; And About Those Sus Highs in the Low 80°s Next Weekend
A Heat Advisory is issued by NWS-Nashville when they think the heat index (“feels like”) will hit 105°.
- We were under a Heat Advisory for today, but it was just canceled.
- Why? We started “cooler,” there’s cloud cover, and we may get an iso shower or storm this afternoon.
- Max expected heat index today “only” 102°.
- “Only”
What was that about showers or storms today?
- I can’t show you a model that has a storm popping up on us during the day. I’m not expecting rain. It’s possible but yeah, not expecting anything.
- Clouds tossing shade expected to roll in mid-afternoon, right when we’d hit the max feels like temp. Begone 105° heat index potential! Just One Oh Two. Here’s the HRRR model rolling those clouds in:
The Wattery returns next week! Monday especially.
The Heat, Summarized.
No relief this weekend. Heat Advisory today from 11am – 7pm. We’ll probably be reissued one for tomorrow, per NWS Nashville. High temp will get very close to 100°, and the dewpoint close to 70°, giving us a heat index of 105°-109°. No hope for any rain to cool us off. Tomorrow is more of the same story, except maybe some showers around sunset. A/C will be vital.
Heat Index > 100°, Wattery Returns Next Week, & About Microbursts
Uncomfortable dewpoints + upper 90°s temps will drive the heat index over 100° starting today, continuing at least through the weekend.
Temps “drop” Monday, but still very humid.
- Temps just into the mid 90°s lol.
- This reason: more clouds due to higher dewpoints should block the sun and interrupt the bake.
- Rain and thunderstorms may develop late Monday afternoon, reducing forecast temps.
The Wattery returns next week.
