Other than waking up to some very chilly weather, I have no complaints about today:
If you’re out tonight or early Friday morning, be sure to bundle up:
Expect a repeat performance today and tonight with clear skies across the region and temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal which may again result in patchy frost tonight, particularly across the Plateau.
Thursday: hot and dry… again. How hot? Well, we’ve already broken the 116 year old record for today, which was 92°. This graphic from the pre-dawn hours gave us a forecast high of 97°. NWS is now thinking 99° at BNA with even the possibility of….well, you know…
Dewpoints will be in the lower-60s. Not bad but still a little humid.
We finally drop below 90° Friday, though a ridge returns Saturday bringing us back into the 90s. Good news?
“However, that should be the last day of afternoon high temps 90 or above for the considerable future.” @NWS-Nashville
High temps will reach 96° Sunday (record high is 98° set back in 1953). Heat index 98°. Touch of humidity (not oppressive).
What else is new?
The HRRR model throws us widely scattered, brief showers, but I wouldn’t count on them.
This model has often (recently) predicted these showers in this high-pressure weather pattern. Rarely happens tho.
“A strong upper level high pressure system will keep record-setting heat going through midweek, especially high temperatures. Afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100…” @NWS-Nashville
Good news: At the time of this post, we have rain moving into the area. It isn’t a lot, but it’s something.
For radar updates, check out our Twitter page @NashSevereWx. Or, go to nashvillesevereweather.com/realtime.
I’d include a run of the HRRR model, but the HRRR looks like it’s on steroids (plus rain chances diminish after this passes). Then there is the NAM3 model, which shows nothing for our area.
Current radar is your friend right now, not the HRRR or NAM3.
Temps today will reach a high of 84°, so enjoy it while you can.
On the downside, it’ll be on the sticky side with dewpoint temps in the mid-60s.
Yup. 90° temps are suddenly back.
Dewpoints will also be in the mid to upper-60s through the remainder of the week. Gross.
I have now gotten to the point where I am begging Fall to show up and kick Summer out for good.
Drought Has Now Joined the Party (Dryness and Heat Invited Him, not us)
It’s still kinda humid and dry, though we will have a slight drop in high temps.
These above-average high temperatures keep pushing us closer to breaking a record:
“Still looks to reach the 90s for much of the area, with Nashville now at the #2 most 90 degree days ever in a year and inching ever closer to the all time record set in 1954.” @NWS-Nashville
Honestly I’m beginning to feel like a broken record, because hot and dry conditions continue:
Good news? Dewpoint temps will drop Friday into the upper-50s!
It’ll still be hot, but at least the air won’t be sticky.
Dewpoints will rise slightly to the lower-60s this weekend.
Those of you going to Pilgrimage should only have to worry about sunscreen and water.
Since last week, “Abnormally Dry” conditions have spread across much of the state, and now includes Nashville.
Unfortunately, I do not have reaffirming news right now:
“With no significant QPF likely for the rest of the month, Nashville and Crossville could both be in the running for the driest September ever.” @NWS-Nashville
[Editor’s Note: The stats…]
Records for driest Septembers since 1871 in Nashville are:
0.13 in 1903
0.19 in 1897
0.21 in 2014
0.28 in 1956
0.35 in 1961
0.45 in 1983
0.47 in 1947
0.62 in 1941
So far in September 2019: 0.01″.
High temperatures Tuesday (today) will reach 97°, but we could see a heat index up to 101°.
Dewpoint temps? Mid-60s. Not bad, but not great.
Due to a weak frontal boundary that came through yesterday evening, a few could see a shower or two, but that’s super unlikely.
“All of this will lead to a gradual decline in temperatures from tomorrow into the weekend, along with a notable decrease in dewpoints down into the 50s and even the 40s from Friday into the weekend. This will lead to even larger diurnal temperatures ranges than we have seen lately, along with some welcome cooler mornings.” NWS-Nashville
In other words, it’ll feel nice out, as long as you can take the 90° highs a little longer.
It’s not Fall yet, but it’s a small step in the right direction.
Pilgrimage is this weekend. Looks hot and unhumid. No rain expected right now. Confidence on that is solid but not 100%.
This is me looking for the rain, and so far, I don’t see any for Nashville.
Hot and dry with a little humidity (dewpoints in the low-60s).
The HRRR model throws in a couple tiny pop-up showers, but I wouldn’t count on rain. The high pressure over the region is working to keep us dry. This model often shows a few showers in these conditions but they rarely happen.
Looks pretty similar to Sunday:
Dewpoint temps should be bearable this week in the mid to lower-60s, but Tuesday afternoon may require some extra hairspray.
Instead of keeping an umbrella handy, I’d keep sunscreen close by, especially if you burn easily like me.
I’m trying to look for Fall, but unfortunately I can’t find it just yet.
“In the extended forecast forecast, a SW to NE upper level ridge will continue to dominate. An organized boundary will set up just to our northwest by early next week.” @NWS-Nashville
High 96°, as humid as yesterday was, with a few late-afternoon pop-up showers and storms possible.
Below is one model, the HRRR. Pretty sure showers/storms will pop up this afternoon and last until the sun goes down. We don’t know exactly where or when, so be flexible.
NWS-Nashville points out any storms will move slowly, probably drifting south/southeast (that’s from Nashville to Murfreesboro).
So bring an umbrella and don’t be too far away from an enclosed shelter in case a thunderstorm chooses you.
If you don’t get rained on, the heat index will hit or slightly exceed 100°.
Summer is not finished yet.
Friday: Similar to Thursday. Hot with heat index up to 99°. Humid. Scattered showers possible.
Saturday: Some relief from the heat thanks to a weak cold front, but we won’t escape the chance of rain. Still humid, dewpoint temps still uncomfortable in the upper-60s.
Sunday: Sunny skies move in, temps increase again. No relief from the uncomfortable humidity. The Titans game will be hot and we may have to dodge a second half shower or storm.
I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for Fall.
A potential tropical cyclone is developing that may bring us some rain (and a little wind, not a big deal) to our mid-week weather.
“In the extended forecast, a tropical disturbance will be working northward across the Gulf [of Mexico] on Sunday. This feature may reach land by Monday with the tropical moisture attempting to spread north. The National Hurricane Center, at this point, does reference this system as having a 50% chance [now 40% after an update] of developing into a tropical cyclone. As of right now, it is located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. As for the model progs, the Euro shows better organization with the feature heading straight for Middle TN by mid week. The GFS model washes it out and brings the better residual moisture further west. Will go ahead and increase probabilities of precipitation up to the 20-40 percent range for Tues and Wed.” @NWS-Nashville
The great weather continues.
Dewpoint temperatures will linger in the mid-60s, leading to some stickiness in the air.
So far, the weather seems uneventful for the remainder of the week:
Wednesday: Cold front moves through. One more day of almost oppressive humidity with a dewpoint of 70°. Could see some rain, but that looks unlikely.
From NWS-Nashville:
“Won`t rule out showers Wednesday, but models have been consistently showing drier air winning out over the past runs, so kept probability of precipitation out of Wednesday.”
Thursday: Beautiful. High temperature drops, dewpoints in the upper-50s and lower-60s.
Friendly reminder: don’t be deceived. Fall is teasing us.
Friday through the Weekend: Dry and nice Friday. This weekend, temperatures and dewpoints back on the rise.
After almost an entire day of devastating Grand Bahama, the eyewall of Dorian has finally left the island and should begin its current projected path along the southeast coast. Here’s a current look at satellite:
Latest key messages from the National Hurricane Center:
Will Dorian Affect Us?
Not really. Just a small indirect impact on our temperatures.
“By Friday, Dorian should be just off the MD/VA/NJ coast, and some shortwave ridging ahead of the strong upper high in the Plains will allow for temps to climb a bit again.”
