A Tolerable Form of “Hot” on Saturday
Hear me out. It *sounds* hot outside today! It’s 10 am and the cicadas are already out chirping in full force.
Few clouds out this morning to provide relief from the sun. Today will be the first August day of this year to surpass 90º. That’s not very “on brand” for 2020, but I’m not complaining! Lucky for us, our dew points are still hanging out right around 65º. Hence, the “pleasant” heat.
Friday Afternoon Rain Raises Localized Flooding Concerns
More showers will move through our area this afternoon, bringing an additional half inch to inch of rain. Localized flooding is the biggest concern today. Take a look at the amount of rain that has fallen in the past day in Davidson and Williamson counties, through 7am this morning:
Saturday: Be Aware of Heat Index and Scattered Thunderstorms
Same forecast. Again.
The dewpoint will hover around 72º all day, making for a heat index just under 100º.
Watch for scattered thunderstorms starting late morning and extending to sunset this evening. Predicting storm locations in the summer is near impossible, especially this far ahead of time. Here is the HRRR’s best estimate of where and when storms will arrive:
A Hot, Potentially Stormy Start to the Week
You know the drill by now: hot and humid today, with a chance for scattered showers this afternoon.
The dewpoint will hover around 71º. As of 11am, the heat index at BNA was already 100º, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we approached a heat index near 105º by this afternoon. If the temp soars, the humidity will come down a bit. But if not, the humidity will stick around. Either way:
Heat Approaching Dangerous Levels Today
The heat arrives in full force today. It will be compounded by full sun and no chance for rain.
Lucky for us, the humidity will begin to build after the peak daytime heating. The heat index will just miss 100º. Notice below how the most humid air (in brown) is stuck just to our west.
Storms are Likely Today, Maybe in Your Backyard
Storms should start forming once we hit 91°, which we’ll do shortly after lunch.
Storm Timing
The HRRR model predicts rain and storms bubbling up in Middle Tennessee starting around 2 PM. This should continue through the afternoon into the early evening. Storms should start to fizzle out around sunset and completely clear the area by midnight tonight. Here is where the HRRR predicts the storms’ general whereabouts this afternoon:
Tuesday, Rain will Taper off by Early Afternoon
Here comes the cold front! It will bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to Middle Tennessee this morning. Most of the rain associated with this system fell before sunrise, though. Here’s this morning’s run of the HRRR model, through midnight tonight:
