Humidity is a up a bit today but nothing like it was last week.
Models have a few inconsequential showers around Middle Tennessee today but none here locally and nothing that would impact outdoor plans.
Author: David
Less Humid but It’s Not Yet Time To Celebrate the Vile Brew
A north wind is carrying drier, less humid air into town. Check out these dewpoints today through Sunday morning:
It’s not Fall tho, so delay your PSL excitement, temps are still Summer:
But it’s OK to celebrate this Big Weather Improvement. NWS-Nashville suggested leaving your windows open tonight!
Dodge Showers, Then Humidity Relief
70°+ dewpoints are oppressive and we’ve been stuck swamping in them for weeks. Including this morning.
SOON, THEY GONE!
First, we have to dodge a few mid-day downpours:
- HRRR model has more showers (see below).
- NAM3 and other convective models have fewer showers covering less of us.
- Cannot totally rule out a few lightning strikes but think this is mostly a rain event, and only for some of us.
After today, it won’t rain much for a while.
- Humidity will drop. It’ll take a while for north winds to deliver that crisp(er) air from Indiana and Ohio.
- By Saturday you’re going to be doing popular tik-tok things with your friends.
- Watch the swamp get pushed out:
- We go from Oppressive to Comfortable/Sticky for at least about a week or so.
Check out those cool low temps:
The Real Hazard is Not *Exactly* Knowing the Future
2sday Feat. Two Days With Some Rain & Storms Around
Rain and storms are likely today but the question is when?
- The overnight models were all convinced storms would form mid/late afternoon and last into early evening.
- Latest NAM/HRRR models have the afternoon quiet with storms forming after dark.
- It makes more sense that they would form late afternoon to dark, say like around 4 PM to 8 PM. We’ll see.
Storm hazards today/tonight:
- Heavy rain in spots, with flash flooding possible; WPC has a 10% to 20% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you
- CG (cloud to ground) lightning
- Low probability of damaging straight line winds in a few isolated spots
- I suppose we could see some small hail but that’s also unlikely
- Not worried about tornadoes.
Rainfall should be heavy in spots but unevenly spread, like what happened yesterday thanks to @SoccerMoses:
Everyone on the interstate was winning the Wattery in that moment. Thank you Soccer Moses!
Four More Days Of Wattery, Then Suh-weeet Relief
Classic Wattery Today Through Thursday.
Monday: Probably Nothing.
- Spilled paint below is just a bunch of models on one display suggesting rain is Quite Unlikely (but maybe still possible) today.
Tuesday: A Bit More Likely.
- HRRR model has rain Tues morning and again late afternoon/early evening, see below.
- Rain may be excessive. 5% probability of flash flooding within 25 miles of you Tuesday. Poor eastern KY, they keep getting hammered by rain.
Wednesday: Likely the Wettest, Stormiest.
- A continuous rain is unlikely, but expect rain off and on during the daylight hours.
- Flash Flood probability straddling the 5% to 10% and 10% to 20% line. Average rainfall around a half inch, but some will get more, others much less.
- Severe weather unlikely in the classic sense (large hail, tornadoes, long tracked damaging straight line wind swaths), but like we’ve seen this past weekend in Donelson, microburst winds will be possible as storms collapse and bring a lot of sudden straight line wind with it.
- CG lightning also likely in these storms. Don’t be far from lightningsafe enclosed structures.
Thursday: One More Wattery Day This Week
- Chances meh, so more water losers than winners.
- Last day of big humidity?
Friday – Weekend: Sweet Relief
- Humidity drop! We’ve been stuck with 70°+ dewpoints for a while, we’re all getting used to it. Dewps drop into the 60°s and even into the upper 50°s Saturday, before re-rising back near 70° late Sunday/Monday. Far from Fall Weather but still pretty nice for mid-August.
- No rain in the weekend forecast (so far!).
- There’s still time for the model data to change.
Quick References:
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.
It’s The Sunday Edition. Readers Demand More.
A long time ago – very long even! – a man got in an airplane, went up instead of sideways, flew to the dang moon and walked on it. So here in 2022, it is reasonable for us all to expect in this here age where George Jetson Has Been Born that I could possess easy answers to your reasonable, common, simple weather questions like: when will it storm on my flying car today?
Today’s Heat Advisory Air Quotes Canceled; Rain/Storm Hazard Potential Monday; And About Those Sus Highs in the Low 80°s Next Weekend
A Heat Advisory is issued by NWS-Nashville when they think the heat index (“feels like”) will hit 105°.
- We were under a Heat Advisory for today, but it was just canceled.
- Why? We started “cooler,” there’s cloud cover, and we may get an iso shower or storm this afternoon.
- Max expected heat index today “only” 102°.
- “Only”
What was that about showers or storms today?
- I can’t show you a model that has a storm popping up on us during the day. I’m not expecting rain. It’s possible but yeah, not expecting anything.
- Clouds tossing shade expected to roll in mid-afternoon, right when we’d hit the max feels like temp. Begone 105° heat index potential! Just One Oh Two. Here’s the HRRR model rolling those clouds in:
The Wattery returns next week! Monday especially.
Heat Index > 100°, Wattery Returns Next Week, & About Microbursts
Uncomfortable dewpoints + upper 90°s temps will drive the heat index over 100° starting today, continuing at least through the weekend.
Temps “drop” Monday, but still very humid.
- Temps just into the mid 90°s lol.
- This reason: more clouds due to higher dewpoints should block the sun and interrupt the bake.
- Rain and thunderstorms may develop late Monday afternoon, reducing forecast temps.
The Wattery returns next week.
