I Doubt You’ll Read Anything In This Blog That’ll Stir Your Coffee But Here It Is Anyway

First can I please say this was harsh. There are now weather vacancies in Hungary.

All the rain is south of us today. It may flood today in northern Louisiana into west central Mississippi so if you’ve got fam down there heads up.

Rain shows up on the HRRR model for us Wednesday night, but it’s scattered around so not everyone would see rain even if it happens (which it probs won’t). Check back tomorrow morning for updated (better?) information.

Rain is a little more likely Thursday but even then it may not happen. A mashup of models thinks the probability of at least a drop of rain Thursday afternoon is 40%. Rain is an underdog! Below is the National Blend of Models showing that 40% chance of a rain drop:

Temps remain average:

Humidity will rise a bit this week #Uncomfortable, and with it, we resume the afternoon Wattery (faint unenthusiastic sarcastic yay from somewhere in the back).

It’s entirely possible you see no rain until Monday of next week. That’s when NWS-Nashville thinks (for now) rain is “likely,” without severe/floody concerns.

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Normal Is Boring and Boring Is Good

Boring, “normal” week ahead.

Temps normal for late August.

Humidity kinda low for late August, dewpoints in the low 60s.

It probably won’t rain here Weds afternoon and Thursday, but rain then is possible. Rain this week is expected to slide south of us through Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia with some flooding risk down there. Models think there’s a 10% probability some of that rain will sneak north and splash us Weds, with around a 30% to 40% probability Thursday (see below).

Even if it happens, we think just rain, with no strong/severe storm concerns.

The weekend appears quiet but the forecast confidence – as usual – this far away is not great.

Looks wetter next week.

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Oh Hey Rain (ruh roh also lightning) Potential Wassup

Remember when we were all SMHing over the 90° days? We were looking at August coming with the dread and Oh Noes? Well…

Just one 90°.

Humidity up to uncomfortable levels is teaming with Other Atmospherey Things You Don’t Care About to create a weekend full of so-so rain/lightning chances.

1 Prep for a Low-Probability Storm Tonight, Just In Case

It’s Friday Night Lights tonight and while I doubt most of you reading this will get a storm, there’s enough activity in the HRRR model for me to suggest you put rain gear in your car before you head out to the game. Once you get to the game, pop open the radar and see if there is anything nearby before deciding whether to bring it in the gates. Or not, you do you, various libertarians and librarians.

Storms may contain lightning, but not much else.

2 Plan In Case of a Saturday Afternoon Thunderstorm

HRRR thinks a storm complex will form south of us and roll through in the afternoon.

Notice this model doesn’t bring everyone a storm. I wouldn’t cancel anything Saturday — storms may pass to our east and miss us altogether — just don’t get trapped on a lake or forget to make a plan B if some lightning rolls up on you while you’re far from shelter (a tree is not a shelter). Lightning the main hazard, no severe weather concerns right now.

https://twitter.com/LtgSafeCouncil/status/1560459669272813568?s=20&t=TRUmYJdPIfjMT9eaUwCZ7A

3 Of All The Next Several Days, Rain Is Most Likely Sunday

Both Euro (below) and GFS models predict rain and a few storms Sunday afternoon.

I’m not convinced everyone in Davidson and Williamson Counties will get something Sunday. Severe weather ingredients are north of us. But if you must be doing outside things you don’t want to do and you need a weather excuse, plan to do those Sunday.

There’s no flash flooding in the forecast.

Wattery Szn storms possible Monday, but after that things quiet down. BTW this “quiet” forecast is a 180° turn from previous model runs that predicted a pretty wet and stormy next week. Ahhhh models, the day traders of the weather enterprise.

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Weather Things Happening & Not Happening

89° is the mid/late August average high.

Great job everybody:

No tornadoes in this forecast but there is rain:

  • Today, Gore-geee-usss (for August). After today not so much, but not so bad.
  • We may encounter Friday afternoon/evening downpours and lightningstorms scattered around Middle Tennessee. Be lightning safe during HS football games and whatever else it is you’re doing. Most games should be OK but we don’t know which. Here’s the HRRR model (the NAM isn’t quite as stormy):
  • Humidity will jump up to Sticky & Uncomfortable beginning Saturday.
  • Beginning Saturday through next week, the nerdy sciencey things that make rain will kinda come together to create rain chances without the specificity and timeliness you prefer. I am sorry about that. Midwest low pressure, Canadian upper level low, and about eleventy billion other things, all of it moving at varying rates according to various models, will generally make rain possible here in Tennessee, what a world.
  • Rainfall totals look modest, below flash flooding levels.
  • No tornado, no hail, no damaging straight line wind events expected. But sure, there may be lightning.
  • The most likely time for rain/storms is Sunday night. Confidence level is buns.

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Fog’s All Gone Soon. Then Talking Rain.

Fog should mix out around 9 AM. It’s not gone in the classic sense, it still exists, it just won’t be here for a long time.

Rain in West TN this morning should miss us. Models pass it south of us:

Early tonight the HRRR has a few showers pop up but I don’t believe that and you probably shouldn’t either:

So, then quiet for a few days. But temps (and humidity) will rise closer to August normal (temp highs 89°, sticky humidity).

The one high missing here: 86.

Wattery Szn returns Friday with afternoon/early evening pop up downpours and even a few lightningstorms possible. Any one location is unlikely to get stormed, but some of y’all may win the Wattery, so plan accordingly. Alert readers know there is no X ETA for Y location, it’s a lottery!

The Wattery will hang around over the weekend. Then:

A much stronger surface system will begin impacting Middle Tennessee Sunday night and Monday and this will also be accompanied by a deep upper trough. Cooler temperatures and even higher rain chances will stay with us until at least the middle of next week. QPF values from Sunday night through Tuesday look to be particularly robust…

NWS-Nashville, Morning Forecast Discussion, 8/17/22

Early next week looks pretty wet. Around 2″ of rain over three days or so. We’ll see about that. Forecast data can be unreliable at this range.

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Stuff is Happening in Weather for Us This Week but it’s Meh.

A few small, light showers are in Middle Tennessee on radar this morning. None of them local, none of them of any consequence.

The HRRR model is dry for us. NAM thinks a few barely-even-rainers could streak through. Look to the north for any shower coming down.

Water Vapor (upper levels) this morning, notice the direction of the cooler cloud tops in green/white.

But no meaningful rain expected today or Tuesday.

Winds shift north and deliver cooler air beginning tomorrow:

Temps are low Wednesday because a wave of rain might get to us. The NAM shows it getting us Weds morning:

But both GFS and Euro models think it’ll miss us to the southwest.

Humidity will go back up to near Uncomfortable beginning Thursday and continue there through the weekend. We may see afternoon pop up showers or storms each day during this time.

That’s right! The Wattery is coming back.

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No Severe Weather, Just Talking About Temps and Rain This Week.

Humidity is a up a bit today but nothing like it was last week.

Models have a few inconsequential showers around Middle Tennessee today but none here locally and nothing that would impact outdoor plans.

We will cook under 90°s for another two days. On Monday night a north wind blows in cooler, drier air.

Tuesday through at the least the end of the week, models show disturbances aloft riding overhead that could cause a few downpours and thunderstorms. These wouldn’t be the typical summertime pop ups. They’ll be seen in the models, but the problem is the models disagree where the rain will go. For example:

  • The NAM model loves our rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday morning:
  • But the Euro does not:

We will be looking toward the W/NW for upper level disturbances riding various waves to see if they’ll ride over us. There are no ETAs, but, generally speaking: our rain chances increase later in each day.

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Less Humid but It’s Not Yet Time To Celebrate the Vile Brew

A north wind is carrying drier, less humid air into town. Check out these dewpoints today through Sunday morning:

It’s not Fall tho, so delay your PSL excitement, temps are still Summer:

But it’s OK to celebrate this Big Weather Improvement. NWS-Nashville suggested leaving your windows open tonight!

Tangent: Celebrate PSLs if you want, I don’t really care, and if I did care and you wanted to celebrate the Vile Brew why should you care what I think about what tastes good? You shouldn’t! I tried the PSL last year. It tasted like a group of pumpkins drank cinnamon booze all night and one of them threw up in the bushes near Hard Rock off Broadway. Sure, it was nice that they went out to celebrate an Approaching Fall Wedding Scheduled for Kickoff of the Iron Bowl, and yeah it was nice someone was holding the vomiter’s hair which is True Friend Level, and you can dress that scene up with whipped cream but once we get down to it all it’s pumpkin puke in a cup. It’s giving Fall a bad name. End Tangent.

Humidity will jump from Comfortable to Sticky Sunday through Weds.

  • A few upper level disturbances may set off a few showers Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. Meh.
  • Wednesday, along comes another front to knock the humidity back down.

The new Drought Monitor still has the west half of us Abnormally Dry with western Will Co in a Moderate Drought.

Note the fine print — those are “broad-scale conditions,” I’m supersure some of y’all got backyards that are no longer droughty.

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Dodge Showers, Then Humidity Relief

70°+ dewpoints are oppressive and we’ve been stuck swamping in them for weeks. Including this morning.

SOON, THEY GONE!

First, we have to dodge a few mid-day downpours:

  • HRRR model has more showers (see below).
  • NAM3 and other convective models have fewer showers covering less of us.
  • Cannot totally rule out a few lightning strikes but think this is mostly a rain event, and only for some of us.

After today, it won’t rain much for a while.

  • Humidity will drop. It’ll take a while for north winds to deliver that crisp(er) air from Indiana and Ohio.
  • By Saturday you’re going to be doing popular tik-tok things with your friends.
  • Watch the swamp get pushed out:
  • We go from Oppressive to Comfortable/Sticky for at least about a week or so.

Check out those cool low temps:

Humidity will jump to Sticky on Monday ahead of a few incoming disturbances.

  • This will make a few showers possible each day, but look meh.
  • The disturbances will deliver another front that will reinforce the low-humidity summer days.
  • Techy explanation:

A couple weak disturbances will ride along the flow which could help trigger some isolated to scattered storms on Monday and Tuesday. The Tuesday disturbance will drag another surface cold front with it giving us another brief shot of slightly cooler and drier air for Wednesday and Thursday.

NWS-Nashville, AM Forecast Discussion, 8/11/22.

Long range everything looks chill. Even the tropics appear quiet, let’s keep it that way.

Sure, a second, third, and fourth Summer of ’22 will be along down the road, but for now let’s just look down at our shoes.

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The Real Hazard is Not *Exactly* Knowing the Future

Storms are likely today. Even more than yesterday! Rainfall amounts will be spread unequally and without reliable ETAs. Looks like most if not all of us will get something. It’s a Wattery, with many more winning numbers than usual.

  • Best guess is storms forming after lunch and getting here late afternoon. Maybe earlier!
  • They’ll be strongest during the evening rush hour as cells respond to peak heating along a sagging front dropping from the Ohio Valley.
  • Sunset will weaken storms with the loss of daytime heating propping them up.
  • Lightning likely.
  • Occasional gusty / straight line damaging wind possible. Hail? Meh-be. But no tornadoes.
  • Localized flash flooding possible.

Below is the 13z run of the HRRR, time stamps upper left. This model hasn’t had a great week, but it’s doing a good job of illustrating the general pattern.

Rainfall may be excessive. WPC says 10% to 20% probability of a flash flooding event within 25 miles of you today.

I know some of you want to know if your outdoor event will be cancelled. No one wants to know the answer to that question more than I do. I suppose I could lie to you and guess at it but that would be unvaluable conjecture. We’re all going to have to live with the frustration of uncertainty.

Rain/Storms are possible Thursday but think those will be south of I-40 and probably south of Williamson County.

No rain Friday through the Weekend. On Friday, humidity starts to drop. Saturday and Sunday will be low-humidity, glorious summer days.

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