Weekend Humidity Relief Coming, 10 Year Streak of Sub 100° Days May End Next Week.

Looking for 98° today. Heat index up to 104°. The record temp is 100° from 1952. Doubt we’ll make it there today.

Rain is unlikely but the HRRR consistently shows a few non-severe thunderstorms popping up around 6-8 PM.

Lightning my only concern today.

A cool front is on the way Friday. Ahead of it, rain and thunderstorms will break out across the region, and they’ll probably splash us. HRRR model ETA is lunch to early afternoon (time stamp upper left):

SPC thinks 5% probability of damaging straight line winds and 1″ hail within 25 miles of us. No tornado concerns. I’m not sure everyone in Davidson and Williamson Counties will even get rain, although probably most will.

Still hot and oppressively humid Friday (97°, dewpoint near 70°). A dewpoint drop will happen late Friday night into Saturday morning. Like aloe on a sunburn.

Still hot this weekend …

… but the dewpoint will drop into the 50°s Saturday and even the 40°s (!!) Sunday. This is a massive drop, you’ll love it. Unfortunately, humidity will slowly climb next week:

Next week our nearly ten year streak under 100° should end. NWS is forecasting 101° Tuesday and Wednesday. Less humidity will allow this to happen. This forecast assumes the Euro model data verifies, but it seems to be a good bet considering other models generally (but not exactly) agree.

There is no heat relief in sight. We should start talking about the lack of rainfall. Right now, we’re not even “abnormally dry” …

This quote got my attention:

Again, not seeing any precip chances in the extended [forecast]. So, this could be the beginnings of a summertime drought. However, the good news is that CPC shows that our precip will be closer to normal for July and August. So, lets hope so.

NWS-Nashville Forecast Discussion, AM, 6/16/22

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Heat Wave This Week Continues, Questionable Rain/Storm Chance Friday, Brief Weekend Reprieve, then Another Heat Wave

Oppressive humidity will combine with 98° today and 99° Thursday to send our “feels like” heat index well over 100°, maybe as high as 105°+.

Humidity drops a category (low 70°s to upper 60°s) by Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center grazed with a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. That would be kinda nice if just rain.

“Clouds along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will return” on Friday. (NWS-Nashville). The only high res model in range of this is the NAM3 model below (my least favorite model) — it splashes us with a few late Friday morning brief downpours and lightning strikes before getting out of here fast.

The HRRR below is not completely in range but what we have makes me wonder if the mid day Friday storms will miss us to the east:

Low key wondering the hope/chance of rain is gonna turn out doing this:

Saturday, dewps will plummet into “Comfortable” range and even into the “Pleasant” category. Sunday will pretty nice humiditywise. This weekend is the time to do any yard work that has to be done. (Not all yard work has to be done!).

But temps won’t cooperate:

Another heat wave builds into next week. The temp hasn’t been 100° here since July 8, 2012. This record may not see its tenth birthday. NWS-Nashville has 100° Tuesday and the data looks like 100° again next Wednesday.

We have low confidence in this being exactly right, but there is reason to think temps will get there: the “ridge” that’s stanksweating us this week will return in a different form — instead of 70° dewpoints this week, next week looks less humid with dewps in the low to mid 60°s. If you remember the summer of 2012 and the 100°+ you’ll also remember it being super dry. Less moisture at the surface allows temps to rise higher as “mixing” occurs. Next week’s heat wave is intense, and with less humidity, the temps will go even higher.

So it won’t exactly be a “dry” heat like Justin Bruce gets in Vegas (far from it, really). It’ll still be very hot, and still humid, with heat index values similar to this week. Just a different kind of airmass next week, not quite as thick as we’re getting today.

How long will it last?

Well the data says between June 20-24, we bake:

June 22-28, we sizzle (the bad kind):

And through July 8, sigh:

That doesn’t mean it’s going to be 100° or close to it for the next several weeks. This means we’ll probably be – on average – above normal for at least the end of the spring through the first few weeks of summer.

When’s this heat wave going to break, you may ask?

October is the safest answer.

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Near Record Heat and Exceptional Humidity Is Not Good For Your Bod.

→ Our bodies are not acclimated to the heat/humidity combo here today. It’ll stay through most of this week. Cramping, feeling dizzy, headaches are among the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Listen to your bod. No force of will or “toughness” can overcome the natural process of an overheating body starting to shut down. At minimum, heat exhaustion is embarrassing because you’re vomiting on a sidewalk. At worst, it can land you in the hospital with organ failure. I’m not a biologist but I recall from A&P classes that your organs are important. Take care of those most vulnerable — those working outside — and if you employ such workers require that they get inside. These conditions will exceed every and any reasonable OSHA workplace safety guideline.

→ Rain is missing on the HRRR model for the next 48 hours. Not saying a pop up rainer is impossible (because it is possible) but nah — this heat miser ridge will suppress any/all storm chances. The heat lifting this excessive humidity that would ordinarily release in the form of afternoon storms is trapped at the surface and we’re all swimming in it.

→ Instead we are afflicted by exceptionally (for us) high humidity and near record high temps.

Dewpoints running into the 70°s through Wednesday will thicken the air with a blanket of sweat, like you’re inhaling oxygen through a small straw.

NWS-Nashville issues a Heat Advisory when the temp/dew combo makes a 105°+ heat index. There’s one in effect today from 11 AM to 7 PM. The forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is for 105°+ heat indices so expect a Heat Advisory then, too.

→ Temps and Heat Index values may back off a degree or 2 [on Wednesday], but any relief will be hard to detect. Slight weakening of the ridge may allow a few thunderstorms to dot the area Wednesday. The center of the ridge will shift west of our area Thursday and Friday. This will allow temps to back off a little more and will allow for some scattered showers and storms.

NWS-Nashville, 6/13/22, Forecast Discussion

→ The ridge causing this heatwave should slide off us this weekend, allowing for “normal” temps — still hot but not crazy like we’ll see this week — but with much lower humidity. Then longer range models show the ridge returning next week. If that happens temps’ll go back above normal. Do not want! It’s still technically spring!

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“Please start making preparations for this potential dangerous heatwave situation.” -@NWSNashville.

Humidity will get worse each day. It’ll be nice today. But big dewpoint jump Sunday. Then we straight up heatswamp Monday through at least Thursday.

Temps will follow the humidity rise.

CMA Fest Sunday will scorch. Shaded temps up to 92° plus dewpoints rising up thru the 60°s. This’ll drive the heat index close to 98°. That’s the forecast for the shade and does not account for the heat radiating off crowds. Music goers should mix in more water today to prep for tomorrow. Locals are not acclimated for this.

Rain is unlikely Sunday but a system may come down 24 and spread in some rain in the middle of the day Sunday. We’ll be tweeting updates to the models to account for this chance. Here’s the 12z HRRR:

The heat/humidity combo turns dangerous beginning Monday. Low 70° dewpoint + temps to 98° will send the heat index to 105° – 106°. Similar heat/dew combos will plague us at least through Thursday. Maybe longer.

→ “So please start making preparations for this potential dangerous heatwave situation. Check on your elderly friends to be sure they have proper air conditioning and try yourself to stay inside in an air condition building also if at all possible during the heat of the day. Remember it is also very important to check the backseat of ones automobile during these heatwave events, because it only takes a few minutes for unattended children and elderly to experience dangerous heat exhaustion or heat stroke in an automobile with all the windows rolled up, and also don`t forget your family pets back there too. For additional heat safety information, please visit the NWS Heat Safety Tips and Resources Webpage at weather.gov/safety/heat.”

NWS-Nashville, Area Forecast Discussion, 6/11/22 (AM)

→ Nashville last officially hit 100° on July 8, 2012. Almost 10 years ago. That was a “dry heat” and it was epic. Since then, we’ve hit 99° several times without tipping it over to 100°. One reason that may happen against is that:

“most vegetation around here is quite green after rainfall of the past few weeks. This means even during a potential hot weather scenario these plants will be releasing moisture into the atmosphere to help cool themselves, i.e. evaporative cooling, and this can add more moisture to the atmosphere and keep temperatures from soaring any higher than forecasted or even a degree or two cooler.”

NWS-Nashville, Area Forecast Discussion, 6/11/22 (AM)

→ Will it rain with all this heat and humidity? Models have very little rain. Usually, this much heat and humidity would lift straight up and create pop up showers and storms. That probs won’t happen this time. The problem is this heat wave has a cap (a “Ned”) that will trap the heat and humidity at the surface. We’re hoping for the cap to break, the humidity to lift up, drop the heat index and make storms, but there’s very little evidence of that in the models. NWS-Nashville thinks 10% for rain Sunday through Tuesday, up to 20% Wednesday through Friday, none of them very good chances for your place.

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Near Perfect CMA Fest Weekend, Then “the highest temps and highest afternoon humidity values this year.” - @NWSNashville

THE GOOD NEWS

→ Humidity way down for CMA Fest.

→ Temps cooler than most CMA Fest weekends, the only gripe is Sunday:

→ Only rain in the forecast is maybe Friday with a few light showers in the morning and afternoon possible, HRRR model below:

No lightning, no thunder, no problem.

→ NWS-Nashville holds out a less than 10% probability of rain Saturday and Sunday. Two reasons for this. 1: One model — the NAM — shows showers scattering around both days. Other models don’t have this feature. 2: Models aren’t great with late Spring / early Summer airmass prediction, so cut the forecasters some slack. We only have one set of tools and they may not be level.

THE BAD NEWS

→ This is not a joke:

Pair that with near 70° dewpoints and that’s dangerous heat strokey conditions for all and especially the vulnerable. Remember that’s the forecast temp/dew in the shade. If you run a kids camp and planning to be outside, prep for this.

About ten years ago and a regular grown man* I failed to hydrate, suffered heat exhaustion, vomited all over my driveway, then spent the rest of the day drinking Pedialyte.**

*denotes debatable designation.

**validating debatable designation.

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I Have Never Danced In A Shower Before and other shallow cuts

Below normal temps and humidity this weekend. Today will be the nicer of the two days.

I still doubt it’ll rain tomorrow afternoon. HRRR shows very little activity. What little is has is meh. But, we can’t totally rule it out. This is the 12z HRRR model:

Humidity jumps beginning Monday. Dewpoints will hit the low 60°s, then jump to near 70° Weds.

Note the Euro model thinks the dewpoint jump will happen Tuesday, :puke emoji:

Please let this be an outlier

The point is this is a /consults technical term/ lawta heat-n-humidity. It will cause more clouds that’ll keep temps from rocketing way past 90°. This dewpoint jump is like that time LaRusso turned on the hose when Johnny Lawrence was in the bathroom stall: an unnecessary escalation of a tense relationship*.

This heat and humidity combo means pop up, angry, sudden late afternoon / early evening storm season (Karen Szn! – with full apologies to Good Karens) begins Monday and continues through the week. Weds is the most likely storm day, but, like Karen, its wrath will be sudden and unevenly distributed.

This is how local scientists laid it out:

Best chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to occur as day on Wednesday progresses with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms possible. Overall best chance of strong thunderstorm occurrence too, with gusty strong winds main concern. Not enough confidence though in occurrence presently to mention in morning Hazardous Weather Outlook Product (HWO), but if this trend continues, might mention by this time tomorrow morning. Again, as summer months progress across mid state region, it is more likely that diurnal driven afternoon thunderstorms will have the potential of reaching strong thresholds, thus trying to highlight best potential period.

NWS-Nashville, Morning Forecast Disco, 6/4/22

Looks like a warm front may slide north, south, and over us mid-week [analogy deleted, this is a family blog]. Its exact future position is unknown and unfortunately the exact position is the Key Piece of Info determining how much rain we may get.

Below is the Euro model running next week. Every afternoon it has rain with lightningstorm potential in the afternoon and early evening. But exactly how/whether it’ll impact you is unknown – thanks Karen! – with the general risk highest Weds.

*in this analogy, Daniel is the jump in humidity.

The humidity just couldn’t leave well enough alone, man.

→ Weather safety is about making yourself less vulnerable, Daniel.

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Karen Szn Approaching, ETA Monday

Temps drop today and rise only a bit tomorrow. Both below seasonal norms. No rain either day. Comfortable humidity.

→Sunday things start unsettling. Dewpoints and temps start to rise at the surface while winds aloft shift and allow subtle little disturbances to pass overhead. This combo creates random rain and thunderstorm chances for mid-late afternoon through early evening. Rain at your location Sunday is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.

Few high res models are in range Sunday afternoon. Those show a few showers/storm freckling the region.

→Dewpoints climb into Stickyland Monday and jump to Uncomfortable Tuesday then stay there through the week.

→Karen Szn begins Monday. Low level humid air just waiting to be lifted and turned into rain and storms. Disturbances overhead. Individual cells just waiting to go off on a few unsuspecting people. The Karens will pop up and suddenly, randomly, be among us, the byproduct of a free society. We think that’ll be the story every day this week. Karens usually go off mid-late afternoon through early evening. A few Karens may contain lightning, strong winds, and may even be floody, but organized severe weather is not a concern.

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Looking Pretty Good Actually

Lightningstorms crossed Davidson & Williamson Co last night (morning?, it was 3 AM to 430 AM). A Dense Dog Advisory was issued (this is a running joke from a tweet typo on 3/30/13, click here for context). Storms didn’t water all yards. They were no big deal other than dogs and startled kids crowding beds (if you were chosen by Thor, LMK).

Higher humidity today – mid to upper 60°s, conversion chart below – but temps only mid 80°s because of clouds and a cooler northwest wind.

A front will cross us and may spark rain and maybe another weak thunderstorm. But, probably not. The HRRR has storm activity developing to our southeast, with us maybe getting a little light shower off and on:

NWS-Nashville thinks it’s a 50/50 proposition we will even see rain. If we do, it’d be light, only 0.05″ on average. Can’t totally rule out a thunderstorm but think that’s unlikely.

So then cautious optimism for all y’all who planned nearly immovable outdoor ceremonies outside today and tonight. You are staring down nature, perhaps successfully. Only a few ensemble model members think we’ll rain tonight (yellow boxes, below) but the overwhelming majority of models think a little light rain, if anything, tonight.

Draw your conclusions, assess your risk, and place your bets.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear outstanding. Lower temps, much lower humidity, no rain.

Humidity creeps up Sunday afternoon with dewpoints rising above 60° Sunday. Then beginning Monday, back to sticky/uncomfortable humidity with rando pop up storms for those who’ve angered Karens. What did I do? Nothing, here’s a storm anyway szn will be underway.

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Remembering Army Spc. Jason K. Edens

Jason was born in Nashville. He graduated from Franklin High School. He met Ashley at ETSU. Then he joined the Army.

Jason and Ashley married and moved to Ft. Bliss. Jason had a boxer, Charlie. He rode motorcycles, played tennis. Jason and Ashley planned a formal wedding after he returned from Afghanistan.

Army Spc. Jason K. Edens was an infantry mortar soldier. At Laghman Province Afghanistan on April 15, 2012, his unit came under small arms fire. He was shot in the head while returning to a vehicle to get mortar. He was flown to Germany then Walter Reed but the wound was fatal. Jason died when 22 years old, eleven days after he’d been shot.

His funeral processional cut through Franklin. The town froze as long parade of motorcycles, police, and vehicles slowly, loudly, and deafeningly silently halted traffic for about a half hour as Jason’s friends, family, and a massive, powerful line of motorcycles moved slowly by. Bystanders and pedestrians stopped, stood at attention.

Today, as we remember all sacrifices, we single out Jason. Take a few minutes and read about him here. He was and is the best of us. –David, Will, and Andrew.


Dewpoints Sticky today and Tuesday, increasing to Uncomfortable Weds.

Isolated downpours and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and/or early evening as a surface front slowly creeps closer to us. Rain/Storms appear unlikely to happen at any one location. But high res “convection allowing” models are not yet in range to provide their take. The chance is there if only because of Weds’ high heat/dewpoint combo and the approaching front. Something may pop off.

Rain more likely Thursday as the front slowly crosses. “Rain ETA at the moment is mid-day Thursday,” says the Euro model below.

I suppose a few lightningstorms could pop off Weds-Thu but nothing classically severe.

Things cool off and quiet down into the first half of the weekend. But it’ll be June then, aka random sudden angry pop up afternoon/early evening thunderstorm szn. Predictability particularly poor when temps blast near/over 90° and dewpoints linger in the 60°s.

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Free Sunshine Today, Use As Directed

No sunblocking local clouds anywhere on satellite as I write this.

Dewpoints will top off in the low 60°s this week until a cold front comes through sometime Thursday and cuts it into the upper 50°s by Friday.

Temps crank this week thanks to a “death ridge” to our east baking us and swatting away rainmaking fronts.

Rain is possible anytime Weds night through Friday. Models are not sure. The front appears low-moisture and may even pass by dry. But the Euro has pockets of rain coming through mostly Thursday:

We’ll see about that. We like the Euro, but I don’t trust any model at this range.

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