As I sit down to write, the dewpoint is up, now 63°, step outside you’ll feel the summertime quality humidity. High dewpoints are storm fuel.
The high temp today is 86°. South winds are running 10-13 MPH, gusting under 20 MPH. Things will be quiet this morning and early this afternoon, allowing our atmosphere to destabilize. That’s not great for us, y’all.
First, some noon and 1 PM housekeeping:
Weather models have been struggling lately. Behold this Very Good Meteorologist:
This means the models could have one idea now, then a totally different idea three hours later.
The National Weather Service calls our weekend weather “unsettled” which is exactly what it is — off and on showers moving in from the west, but exactly where and when no one is exactly sure.
Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet? Are we out of the woods yet?
Are we in the clear yet? Are we in the clear yet? Are we in the clear yet?
Not yet.
We asked the higher res models about Friday and here’s what we got:
Windy today. Not as windy as yesterday though. Dry, too, dewpoints in the thirties /applies chapstick/. Wind + Low Relative Humidity often = 🔥🔥 Fire Danger 🔥🔥 warning against outdoor burning, tossing your nicotine heaters, or other fire dangery things, lest a fire burn out of control and spread, but this is a Serious Weather Blog so I must inform you that NWS will not issue a fire statement today because:
Oh No Not Another Editor’s Note! You get different bloggers today through like May 10, from We The OG bloggers. The Regular Blogger needs time off to prove to college professors what we already know which is that he is very smart.
Overnight and before sunrise Monday a few showers may try to sneak through but meh, probs not. No big deal if they do.
Weds morning before sunrise we may see freezing temps with frost in local rural spots.
HRRR model (see 👇🏽) thinks ETA midnight tonight. Most of the rain gone by 7 AM, then off and on light showers after that. Side-eye all ETAs as usual. Think all rain gone by mid-afternoon Friday. Totals around a half inch, enough to rain out water intolerant rollyball fields Friday night and maybe Saturday morning.
Expect rain starting late Thursday night, most of it falling before sunrise Friday morning, gone by early Friday afternoon:
Lightning unlikely but briefly possible Thursday night around midnight. Nothing severe. No flooding. Rain totals about a half inch may rain out rollyballing on some fields.
In this blog: freezy Weds (and weekend) morning(s), rain Friday.
Hard freeze is when we get to 27°. That’ll happen tomorrow morning. Kills plants, big sad. We should hit 24° around sunrise Weds, hard freezin for a few hours before we quickly warm up to 56°. Some of us will be even colder than that.
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