Clear Day Today, Warming Trend Bringing Rain Later

Nothing but dry and warm today. Rain is practically nonexistent in the most current model runs. Some more cloud coverage later today through tomorrow.

HRRR Cloud Coverage, valid Thurs. 1pm – Thurs. 9pm

Highs today are just shy of 90 and dewps in the low to mid 60s. Sticky, but pretty low for August. Tomorrow will be similar, but dial up the humidity a bit (dewps in upper 60s). Highs sneak into the low 90s and dewps hang out in the upper 60s for the weekend.

Probably sound like a broken record here. Added heat/moisture will bring (drumroll please)… you guessed it! Your friendly neighborhood summertime shower/storm. Scattered coverage and ETAs on Friday afternoon are the story with these. Most won’t see much, if any at all. So don’t go cancelling your outdoor plans just yet. HRRR shows showers in the morning, but the best chance (still low) is in the afternoon.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, valid Fri. 8am – Fri. 8pm

More of a summery weather pattern headed our way. Uptick in heat is the real story. Rain is like that one flaky friend. Don’t know when, where, and if they’re going to show up to the party. Get ready for this through the weekend and possibly beyond.

Hot/Humid/It May Storm (what else is new?)

The NWS Blend of Models thinks our heat index will get to 101° this afternoon. That’s in the shade!

NWS BOM 2 m AGL Heat Index, valid Mon. 10am – Mon. 8pm

Dewpoint around 73° to 74° this afternoon.

Models thought we would see a line of storms here mid afternoon. That was yesterday’s models. Today it shows that line south of us. Some of us will probably see a few showers/storms pop off this morning (we have one already in Brentwood/Nolensville) and/or this afternoon from a weak upper level boundary, but the meat of the system should be south of us if the HRRR is right.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Mon. 3pm – Mon. 10pm

Like yesterday, these storms will be holding lots of water. Localized flooding is a possibility again today (5%-10% risk of flash flooding, per WPC). Looking at up to another quarter to half inch if one inches over you. Good news is these storms will probably actually move, unlike that one yesterday in Antioch/BNA/Donelson.

Drying Out Mid Week, Temps Climbing

Rain chances fall a good bit Tuesday. Much less widespread. You could still see a shower/storm here and there, but probably not. Any action would likely take place in the afternoon.

Then we dry out Wednesday and Thursday. Good for lowering dewps some (still very humid). But temps will start to rise. Heat index is into the 100s for those days. Just when you thought it couldn’t get hotter.

You Thought Wrong GIFs | Tenor

Hot, humid, afternoon storms possible — typical late July weekend ahead.

:I’m Not Feeling Great: emoji

Air quality is improving. Most of the wildfire smoke cleared. It’s heavier northwest and southeast of us.

NOAA HRRR-Smoke, Sun. 9am

Today expect a miserable combination of temps and dewps. Like walking out into a tropical rainforest. NWS-Nashville issued the below Special Weather Statement for the heat. See below. Heat exhaustion is likely for those who ignore basic hydration, rest, and shade.

Editor’s Note: I once ignored. Result: yakking all over my friends’ driveway. An afternoon spent sipping of Pedialyte. Shame.

Rain to Cool Us Off?

For some, yes. Others, no such luck. We had a brief shower south of Franklin this morning. Better chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon. Some slower-moving downpours could cause minor localized flooding. The occasional lightning strike here and there and gusty winds possible, too. HRRR gives us an ETA in the late afternoon/early evening. Outdoor plans are a go but keep eyes on the radar if you’re planning on being far from enclosed lightning shelter.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, valid Sun. 12pm – Mon. 12am

Better rain chances Monday. A broken line of storms is anticipated by the HRRR. Hazards: lightning, heavy rainfall, gusty winds all possibilities. HRRR expects any showers/storms to arrive early afternoon and be out by late afternoon.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, valid 11am – 7pm

WPC says flash flooding potential is low. 5% to 10% probability. That’s because sometimes these storms don’t move. They can dump a lot of water.

High temps and dewps are hanging out with us Monday and Tuesday.

Rain chances plummet Tuesday before it gets dry and HOT Wednesday and Thursday.

As in 98° Thursday. That’s the official high temp forecast from NWS-Nashville. It’s also found here in the Euro model data:

Low to mid 90°s next weekend paired with oppressive humidity. Angry summer is here.

Is The Rain Over? Maybe Not?

Heavy rain got many of us this weekend. Others, not so much. Today the rain is more likely in southern Middle Tennessee. Notice the HRRR model, below . . .

. . . it’s got a few downpours south of I-40 today. Those north: nothing.

Previous model runs had “crazy Ivan” showers (those move from east to west) for those along and north of I-40 later today.

And WPC just included those north of I-40 in the marginal risk of flash flooding today:

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Previously, that line was drawn along I-40. So maybe there is something to this. Don’t be surprised if a Crazy Ivan shower rolls into Nashville today. But the HRRR (for now) thinks some of us will see only a little rain today, with most of us getting nothing.

No severe worries. Lightning is possible but other hazards aren’t a concern.

What About the Heat?

The recent rain and cloud coverage will keep temps the same tomorrow. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as things dry out and skies clear. Heat index, as of now, is forecasted to be in the mid 90s. Dewps will be down a smidge, too …. but still muggy.

Afternoon pop up rain chances return Thursday/Friday. Saturday looks maybe ok? Sunday, not so much. Details too fuzzy and unreliable to comment further.

Quiet Day Today, But Rain Returns For the Weekend

Copy and paste yesterday onto today, because rain chances are down and temperatures are up. It’s looking like it may even be a bit hotter than yesterday with heat index forecasted to reach the mid to upper 90s later this afternoon. Typical muggy, summer day in Tennessee. Not going to be much cloud coverage to keep the sun from beating down on you.

Rain chances are low, but not zero. You could still see an isolated, afternoon pop-up here or there. HRRR thinks it’s more of a Kentucky/Plateau problem.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Thurs. 1pm – Thurs. 11pm

Rain Coverage Back Up Through the Weekend

Rain chances start to go back up on Friday thanks to incoming moisture. We’re keeping an eye on a cold front looking to grace us with some additional lift by Friday night. This means more widespread showers and thunderstorms that are going to hang out through the weekend… bad news for your outdoor plans.

“On Sat and Sun, the upper trough is set up across the region, leading to widespread showers/storms…but severe parameters will drop off, as will the chance for strong storms. Sun afternoon however, instability does get a boost but again strong/severe storms chances still low-end. Storm motion could also lead to localized minor flooding over the weekend.” -NWS Nashville Morning AFD

A couple of stronger storms are possible Friday through the weekend. Lightning and gusty winds are the main concerns. The likelihood of any storms turning severe (hail, damaging straight line winds, tornado) is very low. Focus is on localized flooding from the heavy rain, but much of our area won’t see more than an inch of accumulation over the weekend.

Above is the HRRR for Saturday. It shows random hit or miss showers, but not widespread rain coverage. Will it rain out your lake/picnic/party/yard sale? Let’s ask Dolly…

Here’s the NWS Forecast Rainfall guidance. Guidance, not gospel…

NWS Forecast Rainfall, Fri. – Wed.

Rain Backing Off Today Into Tomorrow

Rain chances are taking a downturn the next couple days. Precipitation will be minimal. Now this doesn’t mean you won’t see any rain at all. But rain events won’t be near as widespread as we’ve been used to recently, and chances of any turning severe are slim to none. HRRR says parts of our area could see typical summer afternoon showers, but most of the action will move east over the Plateau.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, Wed. 11am – Wed. 11pm

With our airmass drying out, focus shifts to temps and dewps. Dewps are forecasted to hang out in the upper 60s, which will still feel pretty humid.

Heat index will be up into the 90s, and even the upper 90s on Thursday. Reason for caution if you plan to be out in the heat. Hydration is key!

Adam Sandler Time GIF

When is More Rain Headed Our Way?

Most of us will see calm, clear skies today through much of the day on Friday. After that, rain will creep back into the forecast as an upper level trough inches closer. There looks to be multiple rounds of rain/storm possibilities this weekend. Right now, we think that window opens Friday afternoon/evening, but we’ll have a better idea of when and where closer to time. Heavy rain and strong wind gusts could be a factor in the storms this weekend.

Sunny, Dry 4th of July Ahead; Smoky/Hazy Fireworks Tonight

Who else can remember a rain-free Independence Day that wasn’t either blazing hot or miserably humid (or both)? I know I can’t. But that’s exactly what we’re going to see today. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still going to be pretty warm, but much more comfortable than we’ve been used to lately. Dewpoints are forecasted to rise to the mid 60s tonight, around the time that a lot of you will be watching fireworks. So a little sweaty, but temps will cool off enough to keep you comfortable.

High pressure situated over us will keep the rain off of us today, so let the 4th of July festivities begin. Only other thing to forecast is sun(shine/screen)! Hardly a cloud in the sky according to the HRRR below.

HRRR Cloud Cover, Sun. 11am – Sun. 11pm

Models think a temperature inversion will develop after dark. Downtown Nashville fireworks are set for 9:30 PM. By then, the temperature inversion should have arrived. Firework smoke that would lift up and away during the day will be trapped by the inversion. The result: reduced visibility. Instead of a clear, black backdrop, the fireworks will create and illuminate trapped smoke. Not ideal, not horrible.

Rainless Early Week, Chances Back up on Wednesday

High pressure should push away rain through Monday and most of Tuesday. Isolated afternoon showers or storms are possible Tuesday, but the chance of you getting one is really low. We’re also getting back to the summerlike temps and dewps tomorrow. Heat Index is forecasted to jump back up into the upper 90s. HRRR heat index Monday:

HRRR Heat Index, Mon. 8am – Mon. 11pm

We’re welcoming back daytime heating hit/miss showers/storms come Wednesday. An upper level shortwave is going to suck up some moisture from the Gulf and make rain out of it to drop on some of us. Good news is rain will help to moderate the temps. No flooding or severe weather concerns as of now, but more on that as it gets closer. As always in the summer, any rain event can turn into a lightningstorm. In rare cases big storms create isolated microbursts of intense straight line winds. Those are rare/exceptional events.

Afternoon Heat Bringing More Showers and T-Storms

Scattered thunderstorms are in the works this afternoon… it’s become almost routine at this point. Credit goes to the daily 90+ degree temps that have been firing up showers/thunderstorms. They’re not going away just yet and neither is the humidity… for now.

Our best pal the HRRR is struggling to pick up these events, specifically across our area. Other models are in agreement that it’s going to be an early afternoon ordeal, dying off just before sunset. The Nam isn’t our favorite model, but it gives a general overview of what the setup is.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity, valid Wed. 1pm – Wed. 8pm

Severe weather chances are low, but diurnal heating can always create enough lift to generate a stronger storm or two.

Rain Ahead of Cold Front Thursday

On the bright side, we’re expecting a break from the high temps tomorrow… BUT (there’s always a but) that’s only because more storms will likely be making their way through.

Cold front is on track to pass Friday morning. Widespread showers and T-storms ahead of it will drop a healthy amount of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Anywhere between 1 and 3 inches per the NWS with the front, spread out across the next couple days. Localized flooding is possible, but not much concern for widespread flooding.

NWS Forecast Rainfall Accumulations through Friday 1:00 pm
NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity, valid Thurs. 4am – Fri. 7am

Conditions aren’t favorable for severe weather according to model soundings. The potential for a couple of strong storms is still there with gusty winds and maybe small hail, if anything. Heavy rain is the big takeaway. The unpredictability is just the nature of summertime in Tennessee, especially when you factor in the lifting effects of a cold front.

Periodic Rain/Lightning Delays Possible With Outdoor Plans Through Friday

I don’t know if you’ve heard already, but a tropical storm made landfall in South Carolina last night. What does this mean for us? Not much in the grand scheme of things. No tropical storm force winds or anything of that nature. It already fell apart over Georgia earlier this morning, but remnants headed toward us could very well be packing some “lift” that we lacked yesterday. Satellite imagery shows this convection building up to the south tracking northwest.

GOES-16 Band 14, valid Tues. 12:46pm

Additional lift and moisture increase the likelihood of you experiencing a shower or lightning storm. Severe threat is slim but a couple strong storms with gusty winds are possible. Storms are entering Williamson County as of 1:00 pm, but HRRR thinks the bulk of the storms will go south of us. Radar seems to support this at the moment. That could change later in the afternoon. Odds are, however, you’ll se some rain today. We’ll be covering today’s storms @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Check there for the latest.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, valid Tues. 11am – Wed. 1am

Heat index is expected to rise well into the upper 90s again. Dewpoints will be in the 70s (yuck!).

Storms Continue Mid-Week

Showers and lightning storms will continue on Wednesday. Still going to be hot and muggy.

Rain chances are highest in the afternoon and back off in the evening according to the models.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity, valid Wed. 12pm – Wed. 7pm

Rain Chances Continue Thursday

Widespread rain/lightning storm chances continue Thursday. Severe risk remains low as of now. It’s still a couple days out, so any number of things could happen to spawn stronger T-storms in the afternoon and evening.

A cold front passes through on Friday, which should set us up for lower rain chances, lower humidity and cooler temps for the weekend. Stick around for updates on ETAs in the coming days.

Rain-Free Start To the Weekend

Rain chances continue to dwindle for the rest of today and tomorrow–models are tending drier with each run. All the atmospheric features that were expected to bring rain are moving farther to the north and west of us. More cloud coverage today but not much else.

Iroquois Steeplechase / Saturday

With things heating up a bit and some incoming moisture, a few pop-up showers are possible for Saturday–none severe. It’s hard to say when these will occur, but afternoon is the probable ETA. Whatever moisture we do get will be shallow in nature. Little moisture equals isolated rain events, if anything at all. I know… summer in the southeast can be so unpredictable (understatement of the century).

Tony stark rolling eyes - Album on Imgur

Sunday Showers Bring…. More Showers

With help from some low-level convergence (rising air) and deepening moisture in the area, Sunday’s rain chances are slightly higher. Scattered showers are the most likely scenario, nothing widespread.The NAM (shown below) supports this.

Composite Reflectivity, valid Sun. 1am – 7pm

Severe weather is not a concern. We are currently outside of the SPC’s forecast risk of severe storms. If anything, lightning could occur here and there, so play it safe and get indoors if you do happen to hear a rumble of thunder.

We’re not expecting an ungodly amount of accumulation, so flash flooding is not much of a concern. Localized flooding is possible if you’re unlucky enough to get caught in a slow-moving shower for long enough. GFS below is depicting low rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals, valid Fri. 10am – Sunday 10pm

Get used to this pattern because it’s looking like it’s going to hold up through at least Wednesday before even wetter conditions. More on that later…