Plan on clear skies and dry conditions for the coming days. HRRR is showing little to no cloud coverage for the day.
Humidity still a bit sticky, but a whole heck of a lot better.
The HRRR is showing some pop-up showers while we sleep tonight into the morning hours tomorrow, but there is not much agreement between the models on this. The day should remain mostly dry, if not completely. Refer to the loop below for said “phantom” showers.
Temps will start to drop as cooler air from the north pushes into our area tonight. Less humidity tomorrow.
Next rain chance Saturday & Sunday. More humidity, bit more heat, summertime showers may develop.
Temps up into the 90s this afternoon. Heat index is expected 99 degrees. Dewps in the low to mid 70s are oppressive according to the scale below.
Most of the morning and afternoon will be free of rain. If you’re thinking it’s about time, don’t get too ahead of yourself. Scattered thunderstorms are STILL a possibility with a cold front passing through the area late this afternoon.
Not much relief from the heat with the approaching cold front, but more of a chance for strong to maybe an isolated severe thunderstorm later in the afternoon. Nothing more than lightning and gusty winds are a concern. There’s a small chance of pea sized hail or a damaging wind gust, but both are unlikely. Storms should move quickly enough to reduce any localized flood concern. The timing of these storms? Never 100% when or where indecisive storms like these will pop up, but our area will likely see some scattered events late afternoon into evening per the HRRR. I’d probably keep my outdoor plans but be sure to have a backup in case a downpour or thunderstorm pops up on me.
Drying Out on Monday…. Finally!
The cold front will sweep away humidity and rain chances. We’ll see remnants of the heat and humidity on Monday, but less of it thankfully.
By Tuesday, cold air coming down from the north will make for a noticeable drop in dewps and temps. The next time the models are seeing a realistic chance of rain is Friday, but it’s too far out to know for sure.
Blame an upper level low spinning over Texas for wretched humidity and “will it, or won’t it, on and off rain and storms” this week. We can’t reliably time out whether or when it’ll rain because no frontal boundaries will be there to initiate storm-o-genesis. The result: difficult outdoor planning. Disorganized “may contain lightning” storms may be streaking by.
So you could have something to blame, I drew the upper low in Texas. Editor’s Note: this art should be at the Frist. As @SirJoshuaBlack says, take your date to the Frist if you care about his/her soul.
Gonna rain today?
Give it a full, two shoulder shrug. The HRRR shows a thunderstorm complex to our SW moving our way (ETA tonight), except the storm falls apart than a $2 umbrella. Behold the dwindling, below:
That’s just the HRRR model. Who knows what this humid airmass will do? There’s a boatload of latent instability that could be released; if it happens it would spawn a couple ISOLATED storms on the stronger side–mainly gusty winds. Downpours and lightning the main concern. If a storm gets strong enough a downburst is possible, but wind profiles suggest no legitimate hail or tornado concern.
The HRRR sends in overnight/while we sleep downpours and thunderstorms. No tornado threat. But it may wake you up.
Most of Tuesday should be rainless as another wave of storms develops to our west. This’ll be watched pretty closely. Loose ETA here late Tuesday night. These look like giant water balloons capable of lightning strikes and a few downburst straight line winds. Not worried about hail/tornado.
After Tuesday, expect a decent chance of an rainout/storm event anytime, especially in the afternoons. Nothing too concerning, storms will be pretty far scattered. But you will not want to be outside should you be chosen to get one of these storms. A few spots in Middle TN will be subject to localized flash flooding, but pinpointing those risks at the moment is impossible. WPC estimates the probability of a flash flood event each day to be around 5% to 10%.
The pattern will shift a bit this weekend. We go from the showery, cloudy, pop-uppy storms this week to a sunnier, but hotter, weekend. NW winds in this pattern often pick up a storm complex and drive it down I-24. We’ll have to look for that.
The troughing pattern that brought us scattered showers and storms yesterday is still in full swing today. What does that mean for us? This morning it brought us more of the same: rain, and plenty of it. It will continue to do so throughout the afternoon. The HRRR expects it will leave us alone at last this evening.
These storms will be scattered in nature, so exactly where and when they will occur will be just as unpredictable as yesterday. Instability is not as impressive today, but the possibility of a couple strong storms is not zero. The threat is minimal for us as most of these will form farther to the east along the Plateau.
There have been some breaks in the clouds this morning that have allowed for some sunshine to poke through. This will, if anything, help generate the rising motion needed to build up storms. Biggest concern with these storms, once again, is straight-line winds (5% probability of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph within 25 miles from you). Nothing there has changed, but there is a higher risk for hail today as compared to yesterday (5% probability of hail one inch or larger in diameter within 25 miles of you).
Fog is a concern tonight also as skies start to clear up, so take the proper precautions if you’re planning to be on the roads late tonight.
Things Looking Up for Friday
You will be relieved to hear (well, most of you) that rain is ALMOST out of the forecast. Only concern for Friday is maybe a pop-up shower or two, but even these are looking like they will occur farther east and to the north of us– the models are in agreement.
Besides that, clouds are going to break up a bit, dewpoints will lower, and temperatures will rise slightly.
Beautiful Day on Saturday
Saturday will, in all likelihood, be rain-free. Some ridging in the upper levels will allow us to see higher temperatures. Even better, humidity won’t be terrible. All this sounds like the perfect recipe for a pool day!
This morning’s sounding is showing a lot of moisture moving into the area that will help to generate thunderstorms, some severe. Up to this point, there hasn’t been much more than spotty showers. There is a break in the rain for now, but prepare for severe weather to ramp up as instability increases into the afternoon. Good news! This event is not expected to be widespread. The main concern with these storms is straight-line winds, but tornadoes are not outside of the realm of possibility . We are currently at a 2% probability for tornadoes and 5% probability for T-storm winds exceeding about 60 mph. Chances of hail are negligible.
Accumulation is forecasted to be anywhere between 1-2 inches of rain, so there’s not a huge threat of flash flooding. Minor flooding is still possible in areas, so be wary if you plan to be on the road. The heaviest rain is expected to be situated west of I-65.
The HRRR likes the idea of a break in the rain this evening before another round arrives overnight.
More Rain Thursday, Severe Threat Lingers
The troughing pattern responsible for today’s showers/storms will not be as enhanced, but will remain in place through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning. This pattern will continue to move east, taking the rain with it.
Thursday will be the bootleg version of today. Some showers and storms are likely in the morning hours and there is a small severe threat. According to the HRRR, the majority of the rain will be moving off to the east of I-65 just before the morning commute.
Keep your methods of alerts at the ready in the off chance that these Thursday morning storms turn severe. The rest of Thursday will be cloudy and muggy, with dewpoints well in the 60s.
Less Yuck on Friday
A dry day is finally on the horizon as we get into Friday. Skies are looking to clear up a bit more and allow for a healthy amount of sunshine to poke through. Temperatures will climb back up into the mid 80s, so nothing too crazy yet. Slightly lower dewpoints will make you more comfortable, but it will be a bit sticky as usual.
The remainder of today won’t be as warm as the early part of this week, but don’t get too comfortable… the rain from yesterday made sure to hang around just long enough to make it nice and muggy.
The area will stay mostly dry today, but storms will be incoming from the W while we sleep tonight. HRRR thinks they will arrive in some form after midnight.
These storms will bring with them a low chance of severe weather. Storm food “instability” isn’t that impressive tonight. SPC outlooks us with a 5% of seeing damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles of you.
We are not included in the SPC tornado or large hail outlook.
Storms Continue Friday
Morning storms will move out after the AM commute, but the atmosphere may destabilize again as the day progresses and the front approaches. It’s possible this could all occur east of I-65. We’ll have to wait and see.
Storms should be east of us prior to sunset.
Once again, we’ll be included in a low-end damaging wind threat, 5% chance of seeing damaging straight-line winds on Friday.
Temperatures Down by Friday night
The cold front is on track to bring cooler temperatures into the area by late Friday afternoon. We’ll REALLY see its effects come Saturday. It certainly hasn’t felt much like spring lately, but lower (more comfortable) dewpoints and cooler temperatures this weekend ought to give us a friendly reminder that it’s not summer quite yet.