Let’s get right into it. A Flash Flood Watch was issued earlier this morning including our counties. It’s in effect until 7pm tonight as of now. Keep a close eye on your weather alert apps in case Flash Flood Warnings are issued.
These storms/showers are pretty slow… NWS notes that 1 to 2 inches will be common, but a quick 3 to 4 inches will be possible in a few places. Be mindful of this if you’re in a low-lying area prone to flooding.
Nothing severe expected today. Maybe some thunder, but slow-moving storms holding lots of rain is the focus. The front that’s bringing us all this rain should move out this evening. And with it the rainfall.
Warm and Muggy Few Days Ahead
Moisture is hanging around with us, annnd so is the humidity. Dewps in the high 60s keep us firmly in that uncomfortable category. Not going away anytime soon. They don’t care that we’re closer to October than July.
As far as the rain outlook, it stays pretty consistent for the coming days. Here’s an excerpt from the noontime Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Nashville…
at least diurnal rain chances will be
possible Thursday, Friday and Saturday -- but Sunday could be
Not as much rain as today through the week, but rain chances none the less. Right now it looks like Sunday could be our next dry day, but stick with us in case that time comes sooner (or later).
It’s been pretty dry for the last week or so. Some incoming rainmakers look to change that for us. There’s Tropical Storm Nicholas that will bring some tropical moisture to the area. Add a front moving in from our northwest and you get widespread rain chances.
Chances for today remain slight. Isolated showers and maybe the occasional rumble of thunder. Nothing severe is expected. Best chances come this afternoon up to around dinnertime.
Tomorrow brings us higher rain chances. More of us will see rain, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are the story. Same as today, just beef it up a bit. Still not expecting much of a severe or flooding threat.
After tomorrow, it’s unclear exactly what the tropical storm-cold front combo is going to do and when. We’ll update as it becomes clearer.
Fall Isn’t Here Just Yet
A little glance at heat here. Dewps have already risen to the upper 60s. I regret to tell you we’re probably stuck like that for a good while… at least through the end of this week. Highs today in the upper 80s along with the moisture make for heat indices in the 90s.
But fall is just over a week away?! Well, I’ll tell you we’re down in the low 80s tomorrow. Right back up in the mid 80s after that. Pretty average for September, but not what we’re looking for when we hear “fall”.
Not much to it today… expected to be warm and sunny. Any belated Labor Day plans are a full go. Slightly warmer than average highs in the upper 80s. Still enough to get us excited for fall. Dewps jump around a bit. Mostly at or below 60 degrees (comfortable) until later this afternoon. Low to mid 60s (sticky) this evening through tomorrow night.
Will this kinda Weather Last??
Yes for the pleasant temps/dewps. A cold front is expected to move through our area tomorrow afternoon. Drop highs to the lower 80s and dewps to the 50s for a few days… And here we were thinking the last couple days felt nice.
There is a trade off though. Could possibly see a shower/storm from the front. The chance is low. Chances are even lower of it being severe. More of the action will be centered over the Plateau. HRRR thinks a shower (or two) could nick us early on in the afternoon.
Dry conditions come back on Thursday. Lower than average temps for a few days thanks to the front. Of course, come back tomorrow for more info on the front–and more confidence if it will/will not produce any rain for us.
We finished up with Ida last night. What better way to follow it up than with clear skies and comfortable temps/dewps?
So what’s up? A little tease of fall, that’s what. Highs the next couple days hang out in the lower 80s, a couple degrees below average. What you really want to hear is that dewps are on a downward trend. Sticky today, but we might just creep into that “comfortable” range tomorrow and Friday–a far cry from the 66+ degree dewps we’ve come to know and hate.
Slow warming trend starts Friday into the weekend. Don’t fret! Just highs in the upper 80s forecasted for now. Also getting a bit stickier for the weekend.
When Will it Rain Next?
Minimal cloud coverage and negligible rain chances until Saturday night into Sunday. Slight chances for scattered showers/storms with a weak frontal boundary. Too far out to say with any certainty that it will/will not. We’ll be keeping our eye on it.
Rain continues today, but it appears the majority of the rain for this system has already fallen. The latest HRRR run shows most of us receiving less than an inch of additional rainfall, but a few spots may pick up a quick downpour.
The isolated higher amounts remain a possibility, so for this reason, the Flash Flood Watch continues for both counties. It is set to expire at 1:00 am tomorrow morning. While our monitored streams are comfortably within their banks as of 11:00 am, it won’t take much of a downpour to bring them up again. Stay connected this afternoon/evening if you are near an area that floods easily.
If we receive heavy downpours, they should come in the form of small localized cells. HRRR thinks rain will taper off gradually through this evening and be pretty much out by later tonight. Could still see some isolated showers into tomorrow morning.
Severe weather is not in the forecast for today. A rumble of thunder is remotely possible, but will be the exception.
Fair Weather Wednesday
Ida will be out of our hair tomorrow morning. After that, nice and dry, clear skies. Highs are forecasted in the low to mid 80s. Dewps sit comfortably in the 50s. Ya’ll, this is going to feel great.
Rest of the week is pretty similar. Temps are a few degrees higher for the weekend and dewps a bit stickier. For now it looks like we’re being gifted a few much needed dry days.
Once this rain pushes out, you guys have it made. Some showers may stick around on Wednesday here and there, but no rain is expected Thursday through the weekend. Could work up an isolated storm on Sunday, but man…it’s gonna be nice. Temps and humidity are about as good as it gets for this time of year.
Hit up @bonnaroowx for more info starting this afternoon.
High pressure should keep skies clear and dry for the better part of this week. No rain in sight today.
It’s hot. Highs in the mid 90s, dewps up in the low 70s. Result: triple digit heat indices again… maybe higher than yesterday. Below is the heat index outlook for the next couple days. One word: Sweaty.
Tomorrow throw in a very small chance for rain. Rain chances increase a little Thursday with incoming moisture from the Gulf. You’re most likely to see it in the afternoon, but odds are you won’t. NWS notes the “5-day cumulative rainfall forecast calls for less than half an inch.”
Temps “drop” a bit this week mostly because more clouds should be hanging around. Still hot and humid.
Chances go up later this week through the weekend. Not anticipating hazardous weather for the next 7 days.
Above normal rainfall expected next week per the CPC outlook.
Scattered rain activity and overcast skies in store for our counties. Chances are best this afternoon, but most won’t see anything. Those that do get storms likely won’t see anything severe with these, just brief downpours and the occasional rumble of thunder. See the HRRR below.
Beyond the slight chance for storms, pretty average temps/dewps for today and the rest of this week. Highs in the upper 80s and dewps camp around 70. Sticky.
Tomorrow: More Rain, Chance for Severe Weather
Rain chances start to increase tomorrow through the rest of the week. This means wider shower/storm coverage. The 12z run of the HRRR gives us some insight to what we might expect tomorrow. Generally speaking, we have an afternoon/evening rain event on the horizon. Looks like rolly-ball practices could be in jeopardy.
We’re just outside marginal status according to WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook (5%-10% RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHING 25 MILES OF A POINT). It’s not a fine line, so can’t rule out flash flooding for some of our low-lying areas. We’ll be watching rainfall amounts closely.
We’re included in the marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow. Strong wind gusts and lightning are the primary concerns (5% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point). HRRR says we’ll see widespread T-storms/showers later in the afternoon to around sunset.
Wider rain coverage continues Thursday and on. We’ll keep you posted on the severe outlook.
Happy Friday the 13th! Today is like the disgruntled middle child caught between yesterday and tomorrow. Highs are on a downward trend to the low 90s. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves now… dewps in the low to mid 70s could still give us our most beloved 100+ heat index. No more heat advisory, so that’s good news. Practice heat safety anyway.
Rain chances are way up today thanks to the incoming cold front. More widespread than what we’ve been used to. Outflow leftovers from Kentucky’s storms plus the lift from the front could fire up some stronger storms this afternoon. SPC has our area straddling the “Marginal” risk outlook, meaning we’re on the cusp for severe concerns.
Heavy rain (5%-10% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance) and strong wind gusts are main threats (5% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point). Severe downburst winds are possible too. They can produce weak tornado-like damage. Here’s a gnarly video of one yesterday to give you an idea.
ETAs are non-existent. These storms are expected to develop quickly. Keep the radar handy if you have outdoor plans. These could sneak up on you. Rain should clear out after sunset.
What to Expect For the Weekend
That cold front I mentioned is expected to push through on Saturday. It’ll bring us back to typical August temps/humidity (highs in the upper 80s and dewps in the upper 60s). Funny to think this is our idea of relief now, but it sure is better than, say, a 106 heat index. Temps are expected to be “near normal” for the next 7 days, at least.
Rain/storm chances continue through the weekend. Scattered afternoon storms bringing heavy rain and lightning… not much else outlooked in terms of severe weather. Here’s a look ahead at Saturday according to the HRRR.
Heat advisory in effect for us today and tomorrow 11am-8pm CDT. What does this mean exactly? Heat indices ranging from 105 up to 109…. pretty miserable. Reason for caution if you’re planning to be outside. Plenty of fluids, shade, and A/C are your best friend. Important to know signs of heat exhaustion/stroke, so please give the graphic below a quick once-over.
Historically warm couple days ahead. For reference, average high and low temps for Aug. 11 are 89 and 69, respectively. We’re going to exceed both by a hefty margin. Not quite record breaking, but HOT nonetheless. Still going to see dewps in the low 70s.
When Will it Stop?!
Right now it appears Friday will be slightly cooler (relative to today and tomorrow)… still forecasted to see highs in the mid 90s and dewps around 70. But relief (relative again) is on the horizon when a cold front is expected to roll through late Friday/early Saturday. With it come more typical August heat indices (highs around 90 and dewps in the upper 60s). Little sneak peek of how heat index will change over the next few days below.
Side Note: Rain
Pretty easy to overlook any rain when it feels like you’re walking into a sauna anytime you leave the house. Pop-up storms are possible (but unlikely) in the afternoons. Models aren’t picking up on them well… so there’s not much certainty. Most will be east of I-65. Not expecting any severe weather. Chances are low, so don’t count on anything widespread. Increased T-storm coverage possible with the cold front later.
Today marks a return to normalcy for August: dewps in the upper 60s and afternoon storms/showers. Highs likely won’t break 90 just yet, but the heat is just getting started.
Rain is back in the forecast today. Model runs are showing activity in the afternoon (see HRRR run below). I say more activity, but we’re not expecting widespread coverage, severe weather, or anything of that nature. Anticipate unpredictable scattered showers/storms here and there, but any action could miss you altogether. Not washout material. Still could delay outdoor festivities.
Chances dwindle by tonight. We repeat on Saturday… isolated rain events mid morning to early evening. HRRR thinks it’s more an issue for the Plateau. We’re pretty much out on rain for Sunday, but can’t rule out a stray pop-up shower.
Hot Grand Prix Weekend
Heat indexes in the low 90s are possible tomorrow. The heat really starts to ramp up on Sunday. Highs skyrocket into the mid 90s and dewps in the upper 60s/low 70s. This has upper 90s heat index written all over it. Reason for caution, especially for all you Grand Prix-goers.
This is our first Grand Prix in Nashville. It’s exciting. We’ll be covering the weather from the event. Let’s remember drink lots of water and find shade wherever possible. You don’t want to miss an overtake because you’re passed out in the medical tent.
Here’s a comprehensive list of road closures. Check them out if you go downtown.
When Will the REAL Heat Be Here?
Won’t be getting out of this HAWT trend for the better part of next week. Maybe even in the triple digits by Monday. Keep the water bottles (or your beverage vessel of choice) handy… you heard it here first.