Mix of Clouds and Sun Today, Warmer, Rain Returns Tonight, Cold Second Half of the Week

Nice Weather Today!

Today, we get a glimpse into Spring. A mix of clouds and sun should carry us through the day as high temps top out around 64°.

Rain Chances Increase Tonight

A system approaching from the west will bring some showers and an eventual drop in temps. This system is not similar to heavy rain events we’ve become all too used to lately. This one will drop a quarter to a half inch of rainfall. read more

Flood Watch For Williamson County; Rounds of Rain Could Lead to Flooding Concerns

Today: Flood Watch

Flood Watch Issued by the National Weather Service, Old Hickory

Most of us received between three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain around dawn this morning, which is why you probably noticed streams running pretty high on your way into work this morning. There were no flooding problems, but it’s obvious the ground is soaked, and anything that falls for the foreseeable future has no interest in soaking in. It’s going straight to a stream or river. read more

No-Worry-Flurries Today, Sun Returns Tuesday

We woke up to some no-worry-flurries today as some energy from an upper level system pushes through. We may even see a few more flurries overnight as an upper level low moves overhead. We’re not anticipating any problems. read more

Sun Today, Rain Overnight, Bigger Rain Possible This Weekend

Today

Plenty of sun today with a high temp around 51°. Not cold, but not hot.

Good idea Olaf.

Quick Shot of Rain Tonight

A low pressure system is getting its act together today down to our SW. This will move overhead and off to the NE overnight tonight, bringing a quarter inch or so of rain with it. Shear will be decent, but instability will be lacking, so we’re not expecting any snarky storms. read more

No-Worry Flurries Today, Cold, Sun Returns Tomorrow

Yesterday’s Storms

While we did see strong storms yesterday, mostly in S Middle Tennessee, we escaped the severe weather up in our neck of the woods. As we said yesterday, the severe threat was low and conditional, meaning it all depended on how far north the storm making ingredients got. They didn’t get very far north. So, we were left with heavy rain and lightning. If you’ve watched the news this morning, we can only be thankful that’s all we got. Thinking of those today who are having to pick up the pieces (physically and emotionally) today. read more

Sun Returns, Next Rain Chance Thursday Night

Today

After the soaking we’ve had over the past few days, we have a chance to dry out beginning today. Plenty of sunshine and a high temp of 47°. Not very warm, but the sun will help. Temps continue to climb over the next few days. read more

Dry Today, Overnight Rain, Cool Wind Tomorrow

Today’s weather is glorious. But, first, a word from our sirens.

Many of you heard Metro’s tornado sirens blow at noon today. You were like, “it’s not Saturday.” That would be correct. The Office of Emergency Management tested the sirens today as a part of the system upgrade. The gist of this upgrade is that the only sirens that will activate are ones located inside the tornado warning. Good times! read more

Today Is One of Those Days

Today is one of those days when, after commuting with the windows down, you peer out the office window and wish you were outside! Temps bottomed out at 58° in Nashville early this morning just before the sun came up. With low dewpoints, it was perfect.

Rest of Today

Lots of sun. NWS is expecting a high of 86° this afternoon, but with the dewpoint at only 56°, it’s going to feel about as nice as 86° can feel.

Yes, Pam, it is.

Tonight

Still cloud-free, we’ll drop down to around 63° overnight. Still very comfortable.

Friday Through the Weekend

No rain is expected through the weekend and even into next work week.

A decent high pressure system (blue “H”) is camping out above us, putting a lid on storm development. Looking at the 7 day qpf (rain) forecast map, it’s pretty obvious where the high pressure system is forecast to hang on.

If you’re looking at the map thinking “that looks like next to no rain for us and a lot for Florida.” You’d be right. We’ll have to see if slight rain chances creep into our area by the middle of next week, but for now, the forecast is dry.

So, What About Florida?

By now you’ve probably heard of Hurricane Dorian. Without getting into the weeds, just be aware that the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has it reaching Category 4 strength and impacting the Florida east coast over the weekend. If you know folks down that way, make sure they have this info. This advisory as of 11:00 am AST. 

Back In Nashville… A Quick Word About Rainfall

Assuming we don’t get any more rainfall during August, we’ll end the month above normal at BNA.

For 2019, we’re still way above normal on precip at BNA. In fact, if we didn’t get another drop of precip between now and the end of the year, we’d still end up just above normal. Buuut, let’s not wish that on ourselves.

As always, we’ll be over on Twitter @NashSevereWx. Have a great day!

Storms Possible Today; Smaller Storm Chances Into the Weekend; Heating Up A Notch or Two

Yesterday was an eventful day weather-wise as storms bubbled up over I-65. They exceeded our expectations both in how many there were and how long they lasted. The expectation was that a few isolated cells would develop in the heat of the day, rain themselves out as the sun began to set, and leave us with a quiet night. Instead, we had numerous storms develop that were very electrically active and dropped some small hail.

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Thursday

We could see some similar storms today, although not guaranteed. Some ingredients are in place (nerd speak: deep instability and strong lapse rates) for storms to get a little angry. Also, there are a lot of outflow boundaries laying around from last night’s storms that could enhance lift in areas where they lurk. Outflow boundaries are the winds at ground level that ripple out of dying storms as they collapse. They can be the focus of additional storms.

The HRRR model thinks it will look something like this. Loop is from 1:00 pm – 9:00 pm.

If you have outdoor plans this afternoon and evening, watch for dark clouds. Be suspicious of them. We’ll be watching radar.

The Storm Prediction Center believes there’s a 5% chance these storms will have winds of 58+ mph within 25 miles of you. Lightning is the big thing to watch out for. Yesterday, a lightning strike hit right in the center of Smith Park in Brentwood from a distant storm. Those on the trails probably won’t soon forget what that was like.

High temps should get to about 90° today.

Tonight

Tonight, storms should start to wind down by 10:00 pm. We’ll drop to a sticky 69°, especially sticky for those who receive rain today.

Friday

The energy that is helping today’s thunderstorm development will push back to the west as we get into the weekend. The expectation is that the rain/storm chances will go down beginning Friday….but won’t be zero. We’re left with a 20% of storms Friday and a high of 91°. Heat indices will start to climb into the mid-90s, however, as the dew point creeps upward.

Small storm chances will remain with us each day through the weekend and into next week. We expect storm chances to increase by the middle of next week as energy pushes in, but we’ll see how that pans out as we get closer. Take frequent breaks and drink lots of water! It’s going to be hot!

 

Summer Pattern Continues With Pop-Up Storms; Some Cool Rainfall Stats

Wednesday

Notice the H’s near us on the map. High pressure is in control today. This typically puts a lid on the atmosphere’s willingness to storm. While it’s possible the western half of the state could see a brief storm, the odds are against any one place receiving rain. Temperatures will be slightly above average with a forecast high of 91°. There won’t be much of a breeze to provide relief, so take frequent water breaks!

Tonight

*If* anything bubbles up on radar over us, which is unlikely, it will quickly fall apart leaving us with a muggy evening and temps settling down to around 70° by daybreak Thursday.

Thursday

Rain/storm chances go up slightly on Thursday as the ridge of high pressure slips off to our E ever so slightly. Rain chances will be around 20%, so not everyone will see these typical summer-time pop up storms. Temps go up, too. 93° is the forecast high. HRRR illustrates the possible storms. Loop from 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm.

Friday Through The Weekend

Afternoon and evening storm chances remain in the forecast through the weekend. It will be toasty with highs in the low to mid-90s. If you’re lucky enough to get a thundershower to cool you down, the sun will then come back out and steam the neighborhood up. Summer is definitely here in Mid-TN!

The Tale of Two Months

May was D.R.Y. It’s usually our wettest month of the year. It turned out to be our driest month year-to-date by far. The graph below tells the story pretty well. We received about 29% of our normal rainfall.

We’ve snapped out of our dry episode for June, it seems. We’re currently 3+ inches above normal for the month.

For 2019, we’re still in a big surplus due to the huge rains we had early in the year. Remember when we had over 13 inches of rain in February alone? For the year, we’re about 11 inches above normal.