

Probabilities of Severe Threats

To report severe weather, use the hashtag #tSpotter to send your photos/information to NashSevereWx and the National Weather Service.


Probabilities of Severe Threats

To report severe weather, use the hashtag #tSpotter to send your photos/information to NashSevereWx and the National Weather Service.

Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.
Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″.

Today has turned out to be a fairly nice today some sunshine and highs in the 80s. Luckily, showers have stayed, for the most part, confined to our north which has been great news for those with outdoor plans.

Let’s see what the latest GFS has to show for more storms into the weekend:

NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.

Latest HRRR Model for Today
NWS Nashville is in close agreement with this scenario, which means afternoon thunderstorms are possible every day through Saturday. By Sunday, an approaching cold front will significantly increase rain and storm opportunities. Most of us could see 0.5″ of total rain, with higher amounts around 1.25″+ definitely possible.
What about severe weather? A strong storm or two over the course of the next several days isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but definitely nothing like the Central Plains is seeing today (potential severe weather outbreak).
The good news for Sunday and beyond…temperatures in the afternoon next week will sink back into the 70s! This is more seasonable and provides us some relief, as we aren’t even into summer quite yet.

Expect for tomorrow to be a repeat of today with mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 80s, and gusty winds at times.
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After our fairly dry stretch of days, we look to fall back into a somewhat wet pattern starting late Thursday night. The latest run of the GFS, shown below, displays these shower chances through the weekend.


Expect much of the same hot conditions for the next couple of days, with the exception of Thursday and beyond, when temperatures could drop into the 80s due to cloud cover. We will start to feel the effects of additional moisture as dew points rise into the 60s. A chance for a spot shower or storm will start Thursday and continue into Saturday.


This week’s afternoon temperatures will be above average, with highs during the day pushing 90°F+!

High pressure is in control of our weather through midweek, so not even a pop-up shower can form to cool us off.
That will change this week. Highs will approach 90° each day, Tuesday expect 91°, gonna be hot.

It’ll be a little more humid each day this week. Consult this dewpoint translator for each day this week.
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*Times and temperatures are based on the Nashville International Airport. Central Standard/Daylight Times are reflected. Times begin with the most current hour and may cross over into the next calendar day.
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