The 20z (that is nerd for 3 PM) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued!
For the period beginning now and extending through 7 AM Friday, the Storm Prediction Center’s opinion remains basically the same.
Squall Line Coming: Rain, Slight Risk of Damaging Winds
The lunchtime Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued, and through 7 AM Friday, little has changed:
As you can see, we remain included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather.
Slight Risk of Severe Weather Overnight
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued its severe weather outlook through 7 AM Friday:
As you can see, we are included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather. We’re in this category because the SPC thinks there is a 15% probability of a 58+ mph damaging wind gust within 25 miles of you, illustrated here on this map:
Here Comes The Cold Front
Hot Wednesday & Thursday — Rain & Storms Very Late Thursday Into Friday — Clearing Late Friday — Chilly Saturday
Today – Abnormally Hot – High 89°
Fresh off the 3rd driest September, also the 10th driest month ever (since records were being kept in 1871), today marks the first day of October. So how about 10° above the normal? The culprit is a ridge of high pressure sending in warm air on a southwesterly flow (“flow” means wind). The satellite water vapor image below shows the southwesterly flow (red arrow) and a trough of low pressure, coupled with a cold front (blue arrow) moving eastward.
Rain, Storms Late Thursday, Early Friday
Brief
WED: Upper 80s — 10°+ above normal — Increase in cloud cover — THU: Strong cold front gains strength — Rain, line of strong-severe storms late Thursday night — FRI: Showers and thunderstorms exit by Friday night — WEEKEND: Cooler weekend — NEXT WEEK: Another warmup.
Late Afternoon Update on Meh Storm Chances Overnight Thu
Today – Coffee & Clear – High 84°
It’s National Coffee Day. Earlier today, The Intern 2.0 said he’d attempt to drink 10 cups.
Results:
For the record, this is what happens to me when I drink too much coffee:
National Coffee Day, & an Update on Rain/Storms Late Thu / Early Fri
Today – Coffee & Clear – High 84°
Happy National Coffee Day. Life would not be the same without this magic elixir!
To celebrate and get me through this Monday, I will attempt to drink 10 cups of coffee.
Boring Weather…Until Thursday/Friday
We got this tweet this afternoon:
I’m hoping these dry-weather aided spiderwebs will catch the irritable wasp population we wrote about earlier this week.
Our last measureable (not a “trace”) rain occurred on September 11 (0.02″). For the month, we’ve seen 0.21″, which is 2.84″ less than a normal September. However, we’re still 0.31″ above normal for the year.
Very Little Rain Today
Three days ago, the major global weather models (and later, some of the regional models) predicted torrential rain for us today. We were, they said,
Regular readers of this website will notice that between then and now, the models have been taking that system that was “meant” for us, and sending it southeastward. Notice the frustration in the tone of this morning’s NWS forecast discussion, which I quote (Note: the NWS writes in ALL CAPS all the time, don’t read anything into that. Just think of a Meg Ryan [as “us”] / Tom Hanks [as “rain”] movie while reading:)
Update on Sunday’s Rain Chances
Today – Increasing Humidity – High 83°
Humidity is on the rise this afternoon, ahead of an approaching wave of tropical energy. Water vapor imagery shows its current location in the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the red arrows.