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Update on Sunday’s Rain Chances

Today Increasing Humidity – High 83°

Humidity is on the rise this afternoon, ahead of an approaching wave of tropical energy. Water vapor imagery shows its current location in the Gulf of Mexico. Check out the red arrows.

water vapor

Late this afternoon and into tonight, we will become overcast and a sprinkle or two could begin to fall.

Sunday – Rain? – Wake Up 63°, High 81°

At this moment, it appears the tropical wave will pass to our SE. That means light, scattered, off and on rain for us. Confidence on this forecast is not particularly high.

Here’s the breakdown. Scattered showers will begin in the morning; rain chances will increase as the day progresses. Here is what the NAM’s Simulated Radar shows at 10 AM:

15z sim rad

As showers march towards Middle Tennessee, an upper level trough of low pressure will swoop in and kick the tropical feed east of I-65. Here is a look at the Simulated Radar at 1 AM Monday.

6z sim rad

The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive overnight, but how much we get will depend on when the rain-shoving trough arrives. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center thinks the bulk — but not all — of the rain will get shoved east. From 7 AM Saturday through 7 AM Tuesday, here is what they are forecasting:

qpf 1-3

They are predicting we only accumulate a few tenths of an inch of rain or so.

To sum it all up: A tropical feed moves towards Nashville, it rains a bit, and then an upper level low shoves most of the rain east of us.

Monday Lingering Showers – Wake Up 60°, High 81°

We will hold onto a slight chance for showers until noon. After noon we will become partly sunny and dry!

Random gif:

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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