Afternoon sunshine will help fuel development of more showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. Both NAM3 and HRRR models have waffled back and forth on this, but now both agree rain and a few thunderstorms will develop to our west shortly after lunchtime, then become widespread in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
High temps today will push into the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Humidity is oppressive. Models think precipitable water totals between 2″ and 2.5″ (not that it’ll rain that much) will arrive tonight, indicating arrival of a soupy, sweaty airmass.
The humidity and afternoon showers and storms return… back to reality, I guess. For the first time in a couple days, we will have showers in the area. Even though a majority of the rain will be north and west, we have a chance of seeing some here in Williamson and Davidson Counties.
Thanks to a continuing stream of dry air, dewpoints will be dropping into the upper 50s today. Sinking air is keeping clouds away, allowing the sun to warm us into the low 90s.
Isolated showers out west should not make it to us tonight, as the HRRR model below shows.
Long story short: Hot, lower humidity, no rain chance until Wednesday. Morning dewpoints in the mid 60°s, dropping into the low 60°s in the afternoons.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 90s with morning lows in the range of 68º-72º. The average high for this time of the year is 88º.
Dry air arrived early this morning, and settled in this afternoon:
Colors indicate cold clouds tops (rain and storms). Grey is dry and clear.
The temp and dew point temps will be close together, so watch out for fog in usual spots near bodies of water.
This morning, a frontal boundary parked south of us. We’re on the northern, dry side of it. Behold mid-level infrared satellite images this morning. The coral, orangy stuff is the drier air. Green is the rainy air.
Attending an outdoor event tonight? See below for details:
A weak surface boundary has set up to our northwest (above – traced in white). It’s going to push southeast during the day, bringing afternoon rain/storms to Middle Tennessee.
A shortwave trough will push the stalled front through Middle Tennessee today, causing some showers/storms throughout the day. We could see 0.1″ to 0.3″ of rain here in Nashville, but local amounts should be higher if you’re caught beneath a downpour.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today as the unsettled pattern continues and Nashville. The front that pushed through the area yesterday has stalled and giving us a chance of rain all day today. Here is more from NWS Nashville:
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