Flash flooding is a low probability threat today (5% to 15%).
→MRMS radar estimates 1.5″ to almost 2″ fell over the past 24 hours in parts of Will Co and Nashville. CoCoRahs data shows measured precip, it shows around 0.5″ to 1.5″:
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Rain, Storms Through Thursday. It’s Not Like You Planned To Be Outside, Right?
→ No reliable information tells anyone exactly when or where (Halsey concert, baseball games, whatever) it is going to rain or storm tonight. It may not storm at any one location.
→ You should be prepared for rain and storms. Most of us will be probably be fine, or slightly inconvenienced by weather. No data suggests a total washout/stormout for us tonight.
Next Rain/Storm Event Wednesday
Much cooler today. Tuesday, a warm front lifts in making things warmer and more humid.
Next rain and/or storm event is Wednesday – Thursday.
Timing. A few models put in rain/storms here Weds morning. But I think the most likely ETA for rain is Weds afternoon and night. ETD Thursday after lunch or so, tho we may see drizzlers linger into Thu late afternoon/evening.
Cold Front
NWS Nashville said in their morning AFD.
This is a true "cold" front for early summer and afternoon high temperatures today will be noticeable cooler as only in the 70s to around 80.
This is a good thing. It’s been super hot lately. This cool change will do us some good. From hot and dust to cool and musty.
Today Sweaty. Sunday Rainy (& Cooler!)
Highest heat and humidity combo of the spring expected today. High temps in the shade 93° with dewpoints 66° to 68°.
The May 21 record high is 94° (1941). We may tie it.
Rain/Storms are unlikely. A few model runs had storms popping up late this afternoon / early tonight, but most models think not. It’s totally possible tho so keep an eye on it.
Humid and Hot Today, Rain & Maybe a Few Storms Tonight/Overnight
2 More Hot & Humid Days, then Rain/Storms, then Cooler
Ned Saving The Day (so far!), But He Can’t Fix The Heat & Humidity
“Won’t-won’t Jack’s father be joining us?”
Models disagree about today. It’s causing forecast headaches.
The HRRR model has storms missing you today and tonight.
The Euro has storms coming in here late afternoon/early tonight.
Which is “right?” Great question! Who knows? When “reliable” tools contradict the lesson isn’t “pick one,” it’s “we don’t really know.”