Today was pretty close to perfect. Hope you got to spend some time outside! Tonight, we’ll dip down to 59°.
Warm, moist air will arrive tomorrow as our winds shift to the south (see above). Afternoon temps in the mid 80s, dew points returning to the mid/upper 60s. We’ll be noticeably warmer and stickier, but it won’t feel like summer has returned.
Last round of rain for a few days! The rain-making cold front will be hurried along to the east as a surface high builds in – see HRRR below.
Between cloud cover, rain-cooled air, and cooler temps at the surface, high temps today will reach the upper 60s. Yes, you read that right!
Our overnight low will settle into the upper 50s. An excess of surface moisture, cooler temps and calm overnight winds could lead to early morning fog.
Models have the weekend looking dry. Increased sunshine could bounce high temps on Friday back into the upper 70s. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s.
Same story on Saturday: partly cloudy skies, high temps in the upper 70s. Afternoon/evening plans look great!
Measurable rain chances will return to Nashville on Monday afternoon. South winds will return, bringing increased moisture and warmer temperatures by the midweek.
NWS Nashville’s thoughts on the warm pattern next week:
"Temperatures in the low to mid 80s should do it each afternoon Sun- Thu...with overnight lows in the mid 60s. All in all, next week is not a washout with time in between the raindrops to enjoy a comfortably warm weather pattern."
The party is premature. Our transition to a fall airmass is currently underway *only at the surface" — aloft, summer/tropical/wet is hanging on. This jerk "overrunning" pattern means rain should redevelop Thu morning and may not end until tomorrow night. /ducks/ pic.twitter.com/NTNRaWUmzN
It’s still exceptionally humid. Dewpoints are in the low 70°s. That’s:
And here comes another wave of moisture through our area.
The HRRR model (see below) thinks rain will move through late this afternoon. The atmosphere does have energy stored up, and with a slight increase in wind shear just to the north of Nashville, a few strong storms could be in the mix. Yet the stronger storms should be pretty far north of us.
The Flash Flood Watch expired at 7 PM tonight.
Rain slowly moving east. "The Flash Flood Watch that's in effect will be allowed to expire at 7pm as the threat for flooding across much of the area decreases. However, rainfall will continue off and on throughout the day on Tuesday." —@NWSNashville
Mid-level water vapor infrared imagery shows moisture streaming in from Arkansas and West Tennessee.
Radar looked like this as of 8:30 AM:
It’s going to rain more today.
This morning, in its Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS-Nashville wrote “there is low confidence on the exact location of the heaviest rain, [but] training storms will increase the flooding risk.”
We’ve seen a few showers across the midstate this morning as a surface front has settled in right over Tennessee. This will be our main rainmaker through the weekend and into next week.
Widespread cloud cover will knock our high temps down into the upper 70s, with a low temps in the upper 60s. That a drastic improvement from this past week.
Rojoice! Today is the last day temperatures will hit 90º in the foreseeable future.
Clouds and moisture are arriving ahead of a cold front. That front will show up late tonight or in the wee hours of Saturday morning, slow down and maybe stall out, all setting off a wet, unstable weather weekend where rain chances are definitely there, but there is no real good idea when they’ll arrive, how long they’ll stay, and where exactly they will be.
