They say when it rains, it pours, and that is exactly what we have in the forecast. Rainy day after rainy day.
Today
Rain chances increase, starting this afternoon.
The Hi-Res NAM has spotty showers as early as today. Here it is Thursday 4 PM:
Little/No Hope for a Dry Weekend
Today
There’s a very small – almost unmentionable – chance of a stray shower tonight. If we get one, it shouldn’t be enough to rain us out. We’ll make it to 80.
Thursday
A slightly better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The best chance will be in the afternoon. Rain-out chances are low. High of 78.
Not Again! Rain Threatening Our Weekend
After a dry and warm week, rain threatens to return this weekend.
A chance of rain is in Thursday’s forecast, but the better chances are Friday and Saturday. Looks like a very slow rain system.
The Hi-Res NAM delivers showers Friday. Here it is Friday night at 7pm:
River Levels (going down), End-of-Week Rain Chances
Just finished the NWS week-ahead briefing. Here’s what’s up:
Flooding Concerns
Rainfall totals over the weekend:
No river or creek in Davidson or Williamson County is expected to rise further. Here are three (actually, four) examples to put your mind at ease.
Dry Weather Ahead
No rain expected through Wednesday night:
Temps will top out in the upper 70s or low 80s Monday through Wednesday. A small chance of rain arrives Wednesday through Saturday. No severe weather in the forecast.
The Rain May Be Gone, But Flood Danger Remains
Several Flood Advisories and Warnings remain in effect this morning. Water can still rise and remain dangerous even after the rain has stopped. Water packs tremendous power, respect it. Don’t drive through it. Flooding reports continue to pour in to the NWS.
Rain & Storms To Continue Sunday
Rain is likely overnight tonight as we sleep. So says the Hi-Res NAM (4 AM):
Several other models say the same thing — rain piles in during the middle of the night, and slowly moves across the area in the morning through noon. It finally departs sometime tomorrow afternoon/early evening.
Severe Thunderstorms (Tornado, Hail, Wind) Possible Later Today
The steady rain is moving out. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather for us this afternoon and tonight.
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 2%:
Before You Go To Bed: Country Music Marathon Update
Plan for rain.
The NWS forecasts rain at 7 a.m. Four weather models agree:
HRRR:
RAP:
Hi-Res NAM:
SREF: holds the heaviest rain until mid-morning.
Over 1/2″ is expected to fall from 7am to 1pm Saturday:
Everything You Wanted to Know About Saturday’s Wet Weather
Because this is the eve of the Country Music Marathon, Franklin’s Main Street Festival, countless baseball, soccer, [insert preferred outdoor sport] games, let’s go way overboard with the weather models. We’ll ask the weather models about Tonight, Sat 7 a.m., Sat 1p.m., and Sat 7 p.m. Sunday’s forecast is mentioned at the end.