A small minority of weather models deliver a passing afternoon shower, but don’t bet on it.
No rain appears on either short range model, the RAP (below) and the HRRR, through midnight:
Our NWS can’t rule rain out this afternoon, but if it happens, expect only 0.02″, which probably wouldn’t even melt the Wicked Witch of the West. Proceed with all outdoor activities.
Memorial Day
The weather will be awesome! High of 85 with a few clouds. NWS is giving us a 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Will be very much like Memorial Day. A little warmer high 87 and still humid but no rain expected.
There’s rain on the morning radar, but the NWS and the models say it’ll miss us.
In fact, the models predict dry weather today through midnight:
We may see a few brief late afternoon / early evening showers (from that energy you see in Texas/Oklahoma on the above map), but most of the models disagree and keep us dry. Rain and lightning would be the only real concerns (no severe weather). Don’t alter any outdoor plans.
Tonight
An Air Quality Alert remains in effect until midnight tonight. The general public won’t be affected, but if you’re a child, elderly, or have asthma or other respiratory issues, the NWS suggests limited prolonged outdoor exertion.
The Intern is back from storm chasing, and offers this forecast:
Today
It’s been a pleasant day with temps only reaching the low 70s and plenty of sun. Since those clouds are not around, we will be cooling off quickly once the sun goes down.
Little Chilly. Clear Skies. NWS forecasts a “surprisingly cold Friday night.”
A cool front will arrive from the Ohio River. The models disagree if rain will come along.
The HRRR predicts a few light, scattered showers this afternoon:
The RAP does not:
At 12:50 p.m., a few very light showers appeared along the Ohio River, crossing into Kentucky. Our rain chances are pretty low, and if we get a shower, it likely will not ruin tonight’s outdoor activities.
The models want to send us some rain in the middle of the night. For example, observe the RAP at 3 a.m.:
Gusty winds to 16 m.p.h. and cooler temps await.
There’s a chance of a few rain showers (but not storms) passing through late Thursday morning or afternoon (below: WRF at 4 p.m.). This should not be enough to rain out any Thursday night games:
Storms are firing up to our west and along I-65. They’re moving NNE instead of the typical W to E motion. A few maybe strong, some severe.
The Storm Prediction Center issued its mid-afternoon update. Our severe risks have been downgraded.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a “Slight” Risk for severe weather today.
The morning radar looks pretty clear. A few isolated rain showers may drive by.
Weather models form a broken line of scattered thunderstorms across Middle TN from around noon through dark. Some/Many of these should impact us, and might be severe.