Remember this afternoon’s Forecast Discussion from the NWS, which made three main points about (1) Tonight, (2) Wednesday), & (3) Thursday.
(1). Tonight: The storms marching this way from Arkansas tonight into the wee hours of the morning may weaken.
Below is the weatherbell.com animated gif showing storms across the region from 1 p.m. until around 7 p.m. tonight:
Updated at 12:10 p.m.
Here is a Special Weather Statement from our NWS:
...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY AS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT THIS TIME...A TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3AM AND 8AM NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL STILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
Yesterday, a devastating tornado struck Moore, OK (pop 56,315), which is south of Oklahoma City. This is the same area hit by an historic tornado on May 3, 1999. Early/preliminary reports indicate this tornado may have been worse. The NWS in Norman preliminarily rated it an EF-4.
Today – High 88 & Tuesday – 69/89
Warm and muggy both days with isolated thunderstorms possible (but unlikely). We may make it to 90 both days, especially if these clouds move out.
Tuesday Night & Wednesday (67/83) – Rain & Storms
Monday – 68/90 – Partly Sunny – Maybe An Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm
Tuesday – 69/88 – Chance of Rain/Scattered Thunderstorms
A cold front will be approaching. The chance of rain will increase as we go through the day.
It’s much more humid at 9 am this morning (dew point 70) than it was at any time yesterday.
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This morning’s weather balloon showed 2,843 j/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE. Think of CAPE as the building blocks which make storms. You usually only need 1,000 – 1,500 j/kg for strong storms to happen. Models predict we will have 3,500 j/kg soon, and up to 5,000 to 5,500 j/kg this afternoon. 3,500 is PLENTY of building blocks to make a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Today
The high humidity we had this morning (dew points in the mid-upper 60s) usually sets off afternoon thunderstorms. That has not happened today. We’ve dodged the rain. So far.
The water vapor image tells the story:
I’m feeling good about your soccer game, 10 year anniversary party, and late afternoon motorcycle ride into town, but you should not ignore the weather today.
Saturday Morning – 75 at 10am
Water vapor imagery displays the amount of moisture in various levels of the atmosphere. The more you get, the better your rain chances.
It’s been another wet start to the weekend. Seems like “weekend” and “rain” mean the same thing.
Tonight
Most of the showers and thunderstorms are going to stay to our south tonight, but you’ll still need a rain jacket or umbrella if heading out. At least it’ill be warm, with 70 degrees forecast at 10 PM.