Sooo, What Happened? Why Didn’t It Rain?
Last night and this morning, all indications said rain. Sure enough, this morning a lot of rain was streaming east from Arkansas and West Tennessee, moving our way. Our NWS quickly issued a Flash Flood Watch.
The rain moved into NW Middle Tennessee, hit the ground, cooled the air, and began to spread into the rest of Middle Tennessee. This “outflow boundary” served sort of like a wedge, lifting the humid air up, setting off those off/on rain showers we saw this morning. Those storms further cooled the skies, and left a lot of sinking air (rain kryptonite) behind. This suppressed the upward motion of rain clouds, and busted the forecast. The rain has set up closer to the TN/AL border.
This is a bit of a miracle for brides, a nod to the Tomato Art Festival in East Nashville, and a reminder that no matter how smart we think we are, we are not in control.
There still may be scattered showers and storms, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely. We will drop from the 80s into the upper 70s, but the humidity will remain, with dew points stuck in the low 70s. The HRRR drives a few scattered showers in here tonight, but I’m not a big believer in it (or any other model).
Sunday – Tuesday: Rain Expected
Today, our NWS issued a Special Weather Statement out of concern about flooding tomorrow, Monday, & Tuesday:
Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through At Least Tuesday
A surface frontal boundary draped across the Tennessee Valley will continue to affect mid state weather through at least Tuesday.
Periods of thunderstorms will occur over the next several days. Some storms will be strong with heavy rainfall. Where grounds are saturated, any additional heavy rains will produce rapid run off, causing ponding in low lying areas, and rises along area creeks and streams.
Some of the areas soaked by heavy rains over recent days include the I-40 corridor, from around Dickson, over to around Nashville…
Over the next few days, you should remain alert to the weather in your area, and stay tuned to a reliable source of weather information in case heavy rainfall develops, and any advisories, watches or warnings are issued.
Sunday’s high is 89. Monday and Tuesday, 87. Impressive humidities continue, with dew points during dancing between 68-70.
Rain chances continue each day. Rain is possible at any time, but is most likely in the late afternoon / early evening hours. The surface boundary isn’t going to budge, making any timing or “is it going to rain at x-o’clock” forecasts mere guesses.
Cooler, less humid air will filter in Thursday & Friday.
Categories: Forecast Blogs