It was summer the last time it’s been as humid as it’s going to be later today and Wednesday.
Tell your friends “relative humidity” is useful for fire danger but dewpoints tell the truth:
Dewpoints Tell The Truth
Mow Today, Rest of the Week Cheeks.
- It’s getting hot. Wed – Thu may approach record daily high temps for May 11 and 12. Current forecast a few degrees below the records. Mow today, stay cool tomorrow.
- Humidity mid/upper 50°s except for Tuesday afternoon/evening when it gets to Sticky territory.
- Yesterday I wrote no rain until maybe Sat but now a few models show isolated showers Weds. NWS not yet ready to say yeah it may rain Weds. They’re waiting to see if more data trends that way.
- Still think next best rain chance maybe random pop ups Saturday afternoon, more likely Sunday with a weaksauce cold front passing thru. Model data reliability isn’t great rn, too low res for “will my event be impacted” questions which we can answer if you would like guesses and/or lies.
Quick References:
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings:
Look good.
Support the mission.
Hawt.
This GIF this works today.
Momjeans not ideal Tuesday when the dewpoint gets into the low 60°s Tuesday with an afternoon high 88°.
91° Wednesday would break the May 11 daily record (90°) set all the way back in 2016.
Cloudy and Cool This Weekend, then…not.
It’s going to be cooler today due to some clouds and a front that moved in last night. Today’s high will be around 65 and for the low, we will reach down to the upper 40s.
The HRRR shows no measurable rainfall, but expect drizzle to continue today.
Showers and Storms Today
Last night almost all of us saw gusty winds and heavy rain. We were fortunate severe weather mostly avoided our two counties. However, those winds were legit.
Today, we’ll see more rain but not the severe chances we had yesterday.
Storms This Afternoon – Tonight May Be Strong or Severe, a Breakdown
Moist, unstable, storm powering air will lift north into Middle Tennessee this afternoon:
Storms approaching from the west will tap this power source. Heavy rain, lightning, and severe weather are all possible later this afternoon into the early evening.
New Severe Weather Data for Thursday Afternoon/Evening introduces Tornado, Hail, Damaging Wind Threats.
New data arrived over the past few hours. Below see forecast changes.
During lunch SPC introduced tornado, hail, and damaging straight line wind risks for Thursday afternoon/early evening.
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 5%.
Storms Thursday Afternoon/Evening and Friday Morning (for now).
NAM3 and HRRR models think storms will fire up mid afternoon Thursday in Middle Tennessee. Both models include storms in Davidson and Williamson Counties. One model thinks another line of storms will arrive Friday morning after AM rush hour. I am not sold on the timing of any of this. Never tell me the odds!
Storm Potential Later This Afternoon, Evening
Humidity is way up today compared to yesterday. So is storm fuel/instability.
Storms may develop in Middle Tennessee later this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Exactly when varies by model and model run.
Storms Tonight, Tuesday. Not that big a deal, borderline strong/severe.
Severe weather is west of us today:
We’ll still get storms tonight. HRRR model (below) ETA 10-11 PM, event lasting a few hours. CAPE and shear both low so no severe. Lightning, maybe, but not a lot.
You must be logged in to post a comment.