Severe weather is west of us today:
We’ll still get storms tonight. HRRR model (below) ETA 10-11 PM, event lasting a few hours. CAPE and shear both low so no severe. Lightning, maybe, but not a lot.
Severe weather shifts north of us Tuesday, but keep reading . . .
We’re on the south edge of the above marginal severe risk area for this developing line of thunderstorms popping up around 4-7 PM Tuesday afternoon:
This should contain lightning with low probability hail and low probability damaging straight line wind threats. SPC has the tornado threat north of us which makes sense because of unsupportive low level shear and wind fields. CAPEs and lift look pretty decent so think along with lightning and some briefly heavy rain we could see downdrafts strong enough for damaging straight line winds. Also the forecast sounding compares to prior hail events but those were mostly in the Plains states so not that big a deal for us. A meh setup for scarystuff. The storms run away from us so we should sleep fine.
Wednesday looks quiet to me. Confidence level: nuts.
Thursday the Euro has a chunk-o-energy coming down I-24 setting off showers and storms Thursday afternoon but don’t hold the Europeans to that ETA.
GFS has a Thursday night ETA. Doesn’t look hail, wind, tornado worthy to me right now. SPC hasn’t outlooked us, but given forecast data I’d expect lightningstorms again and maybe a few nontornado misbehaviors.
It may clear out in time for area field days Friday as a cold front sweeps through and slices back our temps. Weekend looks, maybe kinda great? Not sold on it being rain free, at least not yet.
Check Twitter today for changes/updates to severe outlooks, especially for today and Tuesday.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs