Today we’re looking at the possibility of dangerous storms. Here are the Storm Prediction Center outlooks we are a part of:
The HRRR model has been back and forth with whether storms will come through mid/late afternoon. The latest runs suggest mid/late afternoon storms are not likely, but we wanted to mention the possibility.
It’s going to rain and probably storm Friday. Storms carry a low-probability chance of turning bad.
The Storm Prediction Center and NWS-Nashville think the biggest threat is damaging straight line winds (58+ MPH). There’s a localized flooding risk especially in urban areas. One inch diameter hail and tornadoes are possible, but both are less likely. See outlook below. (Editor’s Note: you might notice SPC has the hail risk a bit higher than NWS-Nashville. That’s a distinction without a difference, when in doubt, I like the local forecast).
Showers for some of us are possible today. HRRR below has scattered showers from mid morning to early afternoon.
Our next rain-maker will be in the form of a strong Fall cold front. At the moment, the window for rain opens early Friday morning and closes pre-dawn Saturday morning. We believe the heaviest rain will fall Friday afternoon through the night. All of this should add up to between .25″-.50″. Check back on timing if you have outdoor plans Friday night.
Very warm few days ahead for October. Well above average highs in the mid 80s (on the order of ten or so degrees warmer than usual). Muggy dewps stick around for the week.
Hold on to your hats… expecting wind speeds between 10 and 20 mph throughout the day (gusts up to 30 mph possible!). A few clouds in the sky, but otherwise a sunny, warm day. Nothing to ruin any outdoor plans.
Temps and humidity are sticking to the trend today – temps in the high 70s and dewpoints in the high 60s (so sticky, but not unbearable).
The NWS said that some afternoon pop ups are possible, but HRRR shows most of the fun weather happening to our east. In their words, “Don’t think it’ll be widespread, but we’ll probably see some pavement wetters prior to sunset this evening.”
After a few rainy days, we enjoyed a mainly rain-free day except for some mist this morning. The rainfall is stacking up.
Guess what… we’re warming back up. Expect no less when it’s Fall in TN. One of these days we won’t have to rely on rain to bring us more Fall-like temps.
HRRR has showers and storms already moving into our area with storms continuing into the afternoon/evening.
SPC has included us in their outlook for severe weather today with the following probabilities for seeing severe weather.
