Forecast Blogs

Near Perfect CMA Fest Weekend Continues, Then Brutal Heat

Today and maybe Sunday are the only possible blips for this weekend.

HRRR model thinks some showers might swing in here this afternoon/evening. Even if they do, they will just be light showers. No severe weather, not even lightning = party on.

Sunday we have an extremely conditional severe weather threat. Only areas north of Nashville (of course Joelton) have a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles. Our atmosphere will be super capped, thanks Ned. However, if the cap breaks, and storms do form, they’ll have a lot of energy to work with, which could lead to some damaging straight-line winds and hail. Models currently think the cap will hold. We’ll see if that data changes tomorrow.

Besides that, the weekend will be nice. Sunday gets a bit on the uncomfortable side, temp and humidity wise.

Starting Monday, simply put, it will be brutal. Nashville has not hit the 100° mark since July 8, 2012. We’ll get real close to it on Monday and Tuesday. And if the temperature wasn’t enough, dewpoints will be in the low 70’s, causing for the heat index to exceed 105° both days. Monday’s forecast calls for 99° temp with 72° dewpoint = 109° heat index. BTW, that’s in the shade.

Wednesday and Thursday we may get some slight relief, the upper level cap may weaken justtt enough where a few showers/storms could pop up. We’ll be hoping for these to get us some relief.

This combo of temps and dewpoints is dangerous, and NWS Nashville says “…heat advisory products will likely be issued. This is setting up to be a potential dangerous early summer heatwave situational development for our area for at least first part of next work week. Please start to make preparations along with paying attention for more upcoming heat related messages and suggested safety precautions over this upcoming weekend as next work week approaches.”

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Categories: Forecast Blogs