Today looks to be the last day of our three day streak of being outlooked for severe weather. Today is another 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds, hail, and flash flooding within 25 miles. On the bright side, we are yet again not outlooked for any tornado threat.
The H-triple R model is not super impressed with our chances for any pop-up lightningstorms this afternoon/evening. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility for some though.
The model then shows a line of showers/storms moving through at 10 – 11 PM. The HRRR thinks the line of storms, won’t really be “stormy”, just some showers. Other models have this line a little more intense, probably intense enough for a Dense Dog Advisory. Either way, the possibility for severe storms is there today, and have a way to get notified if there is a warning issued for you.
The cold front coming through Wednesday will make way for Thursday to be an awesome first day of festivities. Low 80’s with dewpoints lookin ‘Comfy.’ No rain.
Friday looks to be the only questionable day.
The NAM3k model (above) shows some morning AM commute showers. Then mostly dry with the exception of a few showers. Hopeful news.
The EURO model (below) thinks AM showers, then another round of showers in the afternoon, and clearing out by dinner.
One of these models may be right, or neither. Regardless, no severe weather is expected. We are outlooked by the Weather Prediction Center for a 5% chance of flash flooding due to recent heavy rains. But overall rainfall totals on Friday doesn’t look overwhelming. Temps will struggle to make it to 80° and dewpoints will hang out in the low 60’s.
Some showers can’t totally be ruled out Saturday AM, but the last two days of the fest look enjoyable.
By Tuesday of next week, models think the heat index will flirt with the 100° mark, it’s that time of the year.
Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs