Rain is still lingering from a cold front that passed through this morning. No concerns at all for anything severe. We should clear out right around lunchtime. See HRRR below:
This cold front is living up to its name though. Yesterday’s high was 74, but today’s is only 55.
The weekend starts off dry and clear, so outdoor plans look great for Friday and Saturday. Temps will climb into the 60’s by Sunday, but drop again due to another cold front moving though. Sunday afternoon and evening weather look pretty rainy and meh. We’ll keep you posted on potential rain this weekend as we get closer!
Temps won’t be as chilly as yesterday. The high will be in the upper 50’s. Definitely still jacket weather.
The HRRR shows a line of showers just missing us today. There is a chance the showers hold together and we get a little rain but if we do it’ll be brief, around lunchtime. Winds will be gusty, already 20+ MPH this morning at BNA, but not to Wind Advisory criteria (that’s 30+ MPH).
Temps look like they will drop below freezing tonight, so if you have outdoor plants consider covering them.
Monday’s weather looks pretty similar to today’s minus the rain chance. Next chance of rain this week looks like late Wednesday or early Thursday. Euro model below:
We’ll keep you updated as we get closer!
Otherwise things are quiet. Nothing crazy. Usual swings between near freezing mornings and warmer afternoons. Euro has another rain system early next week (Nov 22) that may develop a marginal storm threat, but probably not. Model reliability at this range is bad.
High in the mid 60’s with blue skies and no rain, it’ll be a perfect day to watch Nashville SC close out the regular season against Red Bulls.
Today at 4:45 PM:
Low temps should stay above freezing overnight.
“Warming” trend this week
Warmer than last week. Above average for us this time of year. Temps climb into the low 70’s. This won’t last long. Temps fall off a cliff heading into next weekend.
Are we staying dry this week?
Our next best chance of rain begins Thursday, perhaps extending to Friday. No storm concerns right now. May not even be enough to rain out your plans.
Cold front yesterday means jacket/sweater kinda day with the high in the low 60’s and the low right around 40.
Next chance for rain?
Wednesday night into Thursday. HRRR thinks showers and maybe/low probability few lightning strikes get to us late Wednesday night and linger into Thursday morning. See below:
This’ll be the story through Saturday. Nothing severe. Heavy rain isn’t expected. Rainfall totals through Saturday around an inch.
ETA/ETD data will come tonight as the HRRR and other high res models get in range.
Treat, Not Trick
Right now Sunday looks dry. Near ideal weather for trick-or-treating. Temps look like they’ll be in the low 60’s or high 50’s. More on this as we get closer!
We close out the weekend dry. No rain in sight today. Temps peak in the 80’s today and dewpoints hang in the 50’s. It’ll be warm, but not humid. This will save the Titans game from being a sweat fest. If you’re wearing a hat to the game, keep it on tight because it’ll be windy out there. Gusts could be around 30 mph today and be even stronger tonight.
Storms to start off the week
Showers and storms arrive bright and early Monday morning. HRRR thinks the line of storms gets to us around 5 AM. Right in time for your morning commute. See below:
This line is expected to weaken as it moves over us. There isn’t a whole lot of instability in the atmosphere to fuel these storms. There is strong wind shear though, which can make a few of these storms rather unpleasant. The overall severe threat is low. Main concern is strong winds. NWS thinks an isolated tornado is possible with this line due to the shear present, but overall low probability. Keep phones & weather radios close just in case.
Temps drop back into the 60’s Tuesday and hang there the rest of the week. Next chance for rain looks like Wednesday night into Thursday. Better timing on this as we get closer!
If you’ve been outside today, you know fall is here. Temps this morning were in the low 40’s. Sweater season is now. Temps shouldn’t get higher than 70 today, so feel free to rock your sweaters all day long. No rain in sight, just sun.
The weather the next couple of days looks similar to today. Should stay dry though Wednesday. Only noticeable difference will be the temps climbing up a bit. Should get to the mid 70’s by the middle of the week. Nothing too hot.
Anyone going to the Titan’s game tomorrow night: the weather will be great, but bring a jacket.
Where’s the rain?
We probably will not see any rain until Thursday morning. Euro and GFS seem to agree on this (for now). The exact timing is too far to say, but we will keep you updated as we get closer.
Checks calendar, yes, it’s October despite temps leveling up to low 80’s today. Dewpoints hangout in the low 60’s. See the world’s most useful chart below for interpretation.
Rain shouldn’t be an issue today. HRRR has us dry. Outdoor plans look safe.
The iffiest of rain chances tomorrow
Rain chances Wednesday are low, like very iffy. If it does decide to rain, the showers will be light. No day-ruiners. HRRR thinks that if there are showers they arrive in the morning and leave right after lunch.
Above average temps still hanging around Wednesday. Hitting the mid 80’s. Dewps climb to the high 60’s. Approaching oppressive levels of mugginess.
Ladies & Gentlemen, The Weekend
Rain is incoming later this week, ETA looks like Friday afternoon/Saturday morning. Pretty big cold front will drive in showers and storms. Storms may be severe if the storm line gets to us before sunset so it can tap daytime heating power. Latest EURO run thinks storms could make it here by then, but it’s kinda out of range for a reliable forecast. We are not concerned about this right now. SPC isn’t impressed by severe setup, it says “potential too low” to draw a Bad Storm Outlook. Rainfall totals appear under a half inch, but again, we’ll have better model data tomorrow. Right now betting on an overnight Friday, early Saturday morning rain event, clearing by Saturday afternoon. Timing confidence low.
After the rain, expect much cooler temps with chilly mornings. Fall is coming.
Showers and storms look pretty widespread today. They look to hang around through the overnight hours. HRRR not showing a lot of breaks from the rain today.
No gaps in rain = rainout potential. Outdoor plans don’t seem like they will fair well. Nothing severe is expected with these storms, but don’t rule out lightning and the occasional strong gust of wind.
There is a minor flash flooding chance for today. WPC puts us in the 5 – 10% range of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of you.
Rainfall totals will vary between now and midnight. Flooding chance is low, but definitely possible if a storm trains over you. If you live in a flood prone area, this could impact you more.
Rainy Week Continues
The rain is not going anywhere for a bit. Showers and storms from Tuesday will linger overnight into Wednesday. Rain looks like it’ll stop for a little in the morning, but widespread showers and storms pick back up around lunchtime and stay with us until about 10 PM.
Rainouts are likely. Severe weather not expected, but lightning and gusty winds are still possible.
The same flooding chance from Tuesday continues through Thursday. Lots of rain falling these next 3 days, be careful out there on the roads.
Rain chances are a lot lower on Friday, and basically non-existent on Saturday. Looks like we may have a nice weekend ahead!
Rain from this morning will continue off and on today through the afternoon. Off/On rain and storms should end around 7 PM. See HRRR below:
There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so some of these showers and storms may lead to heavy downpours. WPC thinks there is a low chance (5 – 10%) for flash flooding to occur in Davidson & Williamson counties.
No severe weather is expected with these storms. Lightning is possible, and winds may be briefly gusty in the heavier downpours.
How’s the week starting off?
Temps will hang in the 70’s and dewpoint will be in the mid 60’s on Monday. Pretty comfortable temps but that’s a sticky-humid dewpoint for early October.
Rain Monday looks iffy. Most rain will be east of us, but around 3 PM the HRRR shows tiny, scattered showers popping up that could affect us. Does the HRRR know exactly where showers and storms will pop up? No. Take its best guess with a grain of salt.
Not much rainout potential with these. If one decides it’s going to rain on you, it should be brief and have little impact to outdoor activities.
“Expect rainy weather to persist through most of the week ahead” – NWS Nashville.
Most of it will fall today, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Rainout potential highest Wednesday night. Totals through Friday are expected to get near 2 – 3 inches. Sun filled days could be making their October debut this weekend.
Fall left. Temps will climb into the mid 80’s today, and dewpoint will hang around in the mid 60’s. Kinda warm and sticky feeling out there. Dewpoint/Humidity conversion chart below.
HRRR has us no rain. Dry streak continues.
Tomorrow it’ll be a teensy bit warmer and more humid. Rain will be way west, nothing for us.
Rain Chances Increase Thursday, (but meh)
A weak front arrives Thursday, but rain probabilities associated with it are low. NWS thinks the rain will stay west of I-65, and the GFS agrees. See below:
If you do end up seeing some rain from this, don’t anticipate a washout. It should be brief. If models shift the rain further east or west, we’ll be sure to let you know!
That front will stop the upward temp progression.
We may pop an afternoon-only shower Saturday or Sunday. But the best rain chance appears Monday. Maybe even a few thunderstorms. but “nothing severe” expected per NWS-Nashville.
CPC outlooks show above-average temps into October, November, and December. Doesn’t mean warm all the time — expect a cool snaps — but relative to a normal autunm, this one should be slightly warmer. So says the model data, which is not always trustworthy.