Dry Until Saturday Night, Active Weather Pattern Next Week

Clouds cleared out from this morning, leaving us with a cool, but at least sunny day.

The majority of Saturday will be a repeat of today.

HRRR model (above) thinks rain disrupts our dry weekend Saturday night sometime after dark. Just rain, no severe weather or winter weather. Models think rain ends Sunday midday.


Next week looks confusing.

A frontal system will be hanging around us for…days.

The positioning of this is super important, we don’t know where it’ll end up. Neither do models right now. They keep going back and forth. It’s that time of the year where a few degrees can make a lot of difference.

Yes, frozen precipitation is possible, but not by any means guaranteed. This could very easily turn out to be all rain. There could also be some frozen stuff mixed in. Hopefully by Sunday the models can get into more agreement?

Models are in agreement enough for the Weather Prediction Center to outlook us with a 5-15% chance of flash flooding on Tuesday. Rainfall/precipitation totals for next week look to be 1-3″, wet week ahead. No major flooding concerns.

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The Little Flurries That Could, Rainy Sunday

Well, the snow flurries took it as disrespect when we said no impacts and not to worry…

Take It Personally Michael Jordan GIF

As of 9am, the temperature at BNA is 37°…surrounding areas are a few degrees cooler, but the areas where you may get a quick burst of snow showers may lay down a coating.

Impacts should be brief as temps rise throughout the day to around 40° and the flurries head out. Take it easy on the roads if you have to.

Cool temps Friday and Saturday, but dry. (at least for the majority of Saturday)

Rain looks likely starting Sunday, maybe late Saturday night, on and off for the majority of the day. No severe or winter weather expected.

Next week looks confusing. Models have flipped back and forth each run on what they think. We should know more by this weekend.

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Wind Advisory until 3pm, No-Worry-Flurries Tonight and Tomorrow

As of 10am, temperatures are in the upper 40’s, and will drop throughout the day. Gusty winds will continue through this afternoon, sustained winds of 20-25mph, with gusts up to 40mph are possible. They’ll calm down this evening and tonight.

Models continues to show some flurries moving into our area tonight, lasting on and off through tomorrow. Our temperatures will be cold, but above freezing, so no impacts are expected. The flakes will fall and melt on contact with the ground, fun to look at though.

Friday and Saturday look dry, with temperatures around average for this time of the year.

Sunday on and off rain returns. No winter or severe weather concerns. Just a cold rain. Gross.

Reality TV gif. Judge Judy, sitting at the bench, opens a laptop cautiously. Disgusted at what she sees, she slowly closes the laptop.

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Not-Your-Typical Wind Advisory, Rain Arrives Tonight

First half of today will be nice, I’d take this time to strap down any outdoor furniture, including trampolines. If today is trash day for you, I’d also bring in my trash can ASAP so you aren’t playing tag with it down the street.

A Wind Advisory goes into effect from 9pm tonight – 3pm Wednesday. Sustained non-thunderstorm winds will be around 20-30mph, with gusts up to 55mph. Not only will this toss around your outdoor furniture, NWS Nashville has also noted it may bring down a few limbs/trees. A few isolated cases of power outages are possible.

HRRR model (above) shows rain moving in around 9 or 10pm tonight. This will be perfect to fall asleep to. Rain should be gone by Wednesday AM rush hour. No severe or flooding concerns. Rainfall totals look to be 0.5-0.75″.

Models suggest there may be enough wrap around moisture for some flurries Wednesday night into Thursday. These will be of no consequence as they fall and melt when they hit the ground.

Dry Friday and the majority of Saturday. Next rain chance moves in late Saturday night, lasting throughout Sunday. More deets on that later.

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Rain + Wind Advisory Starts Tomorrow Night

Decent day today, clouds from earlier are moving out. Temperatures are about where they ought to be for this time of year.

The majority of tomorrow will be similar to today, until some rain + non-thunderstorm wind moves in tomorrow evening.

Winds will be howling starting tomorrow evening, lasting until midday Wednesday. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 9pm Tuesday – 3pm Wednesday. Sustained winds of 20-30mph are likely, with gusts up to 55mph possible. These is borderline High Wind Warning criteria, not your typical Wind Advisory. Secure outdoor furniture, God’s frisbees, etc.

We’re caught in between a severe risk on the Gulf coast and snow up to our north. We are left with just some plain ole’ rain.

HRRR model (above) thinks rain starts around 6-8PM tomorrow evening, continuing on and off until it moves out Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals look be to around one inch, no flooding or severe concerns.

Wednesday night/Thursday we may get enough wrap around moisture to see some flurries. These will be a “oh wow that looks lovely falling” kind of thing until it hits the ground and melts. Temperatures look to stay in the mid to upper 30’s, sorry snow fans.

Friday and Saturday look dry, next rain chance looks like Sunday. Too far out to speculate on timing.

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Low Chance of Damaging Straight-Line Winds Tonight

A lil’ foggy out this morning, take it easy if you have to. Should clear out sooner than later.

Temperatures started off relatively cool this morning in the 40’s, we’ll work our way up to the upper 60’s by this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction has the western half of our counties outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles. Don’t worry too much about where exactly the lines are drawn. We are NOT outlooked for tornadoes, hail or flash flooding, yay.

Some showers are possible ahead of the line this afternoon and evening, but they’ll just be showers, nothing special.

HRRR model (above) thinks ETA of the main line looks to be around 10pm-midnight.

With the timing being at night, make sure you have your weather radio or wake-me-up app ready to go in the off chance a warning is issued for you. Probably won’t go off, but you can never be too sure.

Rain should clear out by your Thursday AM commute.


After the front sweeps through, temperatures will gradually drop throughout the day on Thursday. Our high temperature will likely be as soon as the clock turns to midnight on Thursday. Temperatures will stay around average for this time of the year for the weekend and start of next week.

Sunday looks wet, but just rain, no frozen precip expected at the moment.

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Storms (Severe?) Wednesday Night

Today will feel more like a spring day, with temperatures reaching the upper 60’s. Clouds will clear out sooner than later, no rain. Our high is officially 68°, only 3° shy of the record for January 17 set in 1937.

Tomorrow during the first half of the day will be very similar to today, and then a system moves in later that night.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our counties with a

  • 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 5% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
  • 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles

The Weather Prediction Center has also outlooked our counties with a 5-15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles.

The HRRR model thinks just some showers will move through Wednesday afternoon, and then the main line moves in sometime around the midnight hour, I’d call it +/- an hour or two.

The HRRR model, and most models show extremely low, if any CAPE (storm fuel). This is good news for us, but we’ll keep an eye on it in case anything changes. Not overly concerned with this system, but no reason to completely let your guard down.

However, with this moving in while most people are sleeping, make sure you have a way to wake up if a warning is issued for you. A weather radio and/or a wake-me-up app are two great options.

Rainfall totals for this event look to be around 1″ – 1.5″.


Rain should move out before Thursday AM commute, leaving us to dry out and cool down. Our high temperature Thursday will likely occur at midnight.

Temperatures will be where they ought to be for this time of the year for the weekend. Next rain chance looks probably Sunday, details still iffy on that one.

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Rain Today, Wednesday

If you have anything to get done outside today, I’d recommend getting it done this morning.

The HRRR model thinks rain starts around 1 or 2pm, give or take an hour or so. Rain should continue on and off throughout the night, ending before Tuesday morning.

Not concerned about any severe weather or flash flooding. Rainfall totals around 0.25″ – 0.5″.


Our next weather-maker arrives sometime Wednesday, likely evening or night. Any severe weather threat looks to stay to our south and west. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our counties in a 5 – 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles. Rainfall totals look closer to 1 – 1.5″, which can easily be handled if spread out enough. We’ll be watching, but not overly concerned.

After that, another system looks to move in Sunday. Can’t have two dry weekends in a row.

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No-Worry-Flurries, Blerg Conditions Today

Sorry snow lovers, but you’ll only get to look at the snow falling today. We comfortably sit above freezing and will stay that way all day (until tonight, but snow will stop before that). No impacts are expected. Head to the Plateau for snowman building.

Some breezy conditions today will leave us with a wind chill in the mid/upper 20’s.

Blerg requirements:

  • Below 40°
  • No rain
  • No snow
  • No sun

While at times it may flurry, for a majority of the day, we’ll have Blerg conditions. How fun!

The Office gif. Leslie David Baker as Stanley Hudson looks pointedly across the room, his arms folded over his chest in a way that says, "I'm over this."

Our cool lookin’ flurries will head out by tonight, leaving us dry for the weekend. A dry weekend? Shocking, I know.

Temperatures won’t be the best, with highs in the 40’s on Saturday and 50’s on Sunday, with lows dipping below freezing each night. We’ll get back up into the 60’s by Tuesday, with rain chances returning for Monday. No severe weather, just rain.

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Low Probability of a High Impact Event Today

The Storm Prediction Center has our counites outlooked with a:

  • 15% chance of severe hail (1″+ in diameter) within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds (58mph+) within 25 miles
  • 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles

Main threats today are large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Golf ball sized hail, and some larger, has already fallen in Kentucky this morning.

Winds ahead of the storms will be gusty, with gusts up to 35mph.

Time frame of severe potential looks to be 6am-2pm today.

The HRRR model shows storms developing to the west of us and moving into our area. This run thinks multiple waves of storms are possible throughout the afternoon.

Looks like damaging wind and severe hail are possible with any of the storms, but I think the tornado threat will be limited to the AM hours, as wind shear decreases after noon. Regardless, the tornado threat is very low anyway.

I wouldn’t totally alter your plans, unless they involve being outside, then I would change them. But as long as you are indoors, should be good to go about your day. Check our Twitter for updates and you can always check the radar here: Radar – Nashville Severe Weather. As always, if a warning is issued for us, we’ll go live on our YouTube channel.

If possible, I’d try to park your vehicle under shelter with the threat of large hail today. Dents or broken windows are no fun.

No real flash flood threat today, rainfall totals look to stay around half an inch. Rain should clear out by around sunset.


Temperatures will start to fall this evening and overnight, as temps will fall all the way into the mid 30’s. They are expected to stay above freezing. You may see some flurries Friday morning, but no impacts are expected. If you want to see snow on the ground, head for the Plateau.

Temperatures will slowly rebound back to above average by early next week, just in time for our next rain chance. No severe weather expected with this.

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