Low Probability of a High Impact Event Today

The Storm Prediction Center has our counites outlooked with a:

  • 15% chance of severe hail (1″+ in diameter) within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds (58mph+) within 25 miles
  • 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles

Main threats today are large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Golf ball sized hail, and some larger, has already fallen in Kentucky this morning.

Winds ahead of the storms will be gusty, with gusts up to 35mph.

Time frame of severe potential looks to be 6am-2pm today.

The HRRR model shows storms developing to the west of us and moving into our area. This run thinks multiple waves of storms are possible throughout the afternoon.

Looks like damaging wind and severe hail are possible with any of the storms, but I think the tornado threat will be limited to the AM hours, as wind shear decreases after noon. Regardless, the tornado threat is very low anyway.

I wouldn’t totally alter your plans, unless they involve being outside, then I would change them. But as long as you are indoors, should be good to go about your day. Check our Twitter for updates and you can always check the radar here: Radar – Nashville Severe Weather. As always, if a warning is issued for us, we’ll go live on our YouTube channel.

If possible, I’d try to park your vehicle under shelter with the threat of large hail today. Dents or broken windows are no fun.

No real flash flood threat today, rainfall totals look to stay around half an inch. Rain should clear out by around sunset.


Temperatures will start to fall this evening and overnight, as temps will fall all the way into the mid 30’s. They are expected to stay above freezing. You may see some flurries Friday morning, but no impacts are expected. If you want to see snow on the ground, head for the Plateau.

Temperatures will slowly rebound back to above average by early next week, just in time for our next rain chance. No severe weather expected with this.

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Pretty Low Chance of Severe Weather Tomorrow

Minus the clouds and maybe occasional shower or drizzle, today won’t be too bad with highs in the mid 60’s.

Tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked both of our counites with:

  • 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
  • we are not included in any hail risks
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Models aren’t doing the best job of agreeing on this. The latest run of the HRRR model thinks the majority of the storms completely miss us tomorrow and we get away with maybe just some rain. Meanwhile, a couple other models disagree and think storms, possibly severe, do impact us.

Again, HRRR model (above) thinks we dodge the storms. But, if this is wrong, and it very well may be, the timing of the storms looks to be 5-8am. Not ideal timing with morning rush hour. We’ll need to keep an eye on this, but I’m not freaking out. Hopefully the afternoon suite of models come into more agreement. We’ll be posting updates on Twitter as needed.

No real flash flooding concerns, rainfall totals look to be half an inch, if you’re lucky.

Friday morning, you may see a flurry or two, no impacts are expected as we should be above freezing. If you want to see snow, head to the Plateau. Very Blerg-like conditions on Friday.

After this system, temperatures will return to more seasonal values for a few days, before we warm back up to above-average temps by early next week. Rain chances look to creep up again around MLK day.

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Low Risk Of Severe Storms Thursday

Fairly nice day today and tomorrow, highs near 60°. Maybe some drizzle throughout the day Wednesday.

For Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our counites with a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles.

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The main threats look to be damaging winds and maybe some hail, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Timing for now looks to be morning through about midday. This could change. This certainly isn’t anything to freak out about, more of just have an eye on. Ingredients do not look all that impressive, better chances are down in Alabama.

Rainfall totals look to be around half an inch, no flooding concerns.

We’ll briefly cooldown after that system, but slowly warm back up. You may see a snowflake or two fall Friday, no big deal, won’t accumulate, no impacts. Snowfall icon on crap app is misleading you. Maybe a #Blerg on Friday.

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Conditional Threat Of Severe Weather Tonight

The Tornado Watch has been canceled for both of our counties.

The severe portion of Round One has moved through, leaving us with some rain for a few more hours. Flood Advisories are out for both of our counites, turn around, don’t drown! We may see the sun come out for a little after the rain moves out.

Round Two: 8pm – Overnight Tuesday

Round Two is a conditional threat, and entirely depends on how “well” the atmosphere can recover.

The greater severe risk is to our south and east, but that doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet. Severe ingredients will still be in place tonight. Try not to focus on exactly where the Storm Prediction Center drew the lines, everyone has a chance of severe weather tonight.

The HRRR model thinks storms pop-up just to our west, giving us another shot at severe weather. This particular run of the model thinks the ETA to be about midnight – 1am, give or take an hour or so.

Having a wake-me-up app is the best way to go in case a warning is issued for you overnight tonight. Make sure your Emergency Alerts are turned on for your phone, Do NOT rely on your weather radio to go off tonight, as the transmitter is down, and you may NOT receive a watch/warning.

Wednesday we’ll dry out and cool down to seasonal temperatures.

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Three Chances For Severe Weather Tonight Thru Tuesday Night

The Weather Radio Broadcast in Nashville is down and will NOT be restored until AFTER this event. Your Weather Radio will NOT go off if there is a warning issued for you. Find alternatives such as the StormWatch+ app or another wake-me-up app.

We’re still expecting three chances for severe weather.

Round 1: Tonight, 6pm Thru Midnight

This is a fairly low chance of severe weather, as storms are expected to weaken upon arrival, if they even get here. They may miss us to the NW.

Round 2: 6am – Noon Tuesday

A line of storms will move through our area around 10-11am, but storms out ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Best chances of severe weather look to be west of I-65. Damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated flash flooding are all possible.

Round 3: Tuesday evening into Tuesday night

The Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked with a

  • 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles
  • we are not included in the hail outlook

Out of the three rounds, this looks to have the best chance for severe weather. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and isolated flash flooding are all possible. This will also be a nighttime threat, have a way to wake up if a warning is issued for you.

Round 2 and 3 could both be limited by the atmosphere not being able to recover quickly. Cloud cover and storms to the south could also limit severe chances.

We’ll be giving updates all today and tomorrow. Stay weather aware tonight through tomorrow night. Again, your weather radio will NOT go off if a warning is issued for you. Look into a wake-me-up app and make sure the Emergency Alerts on your phone are turned on.

Constant updates on Twitter, another blog will be out first thing tomorrow morning.

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Three Possible Rounds of Severe Weather

We are looking at three possible rounds of severe weather. Let’s break them each down. BTW, none of these looks like “slam dunk” chances.

First Chance:

We may see some scattered showers this afternoon – these should not be severe.

Another batch of showers/storms moves in later tonight. With these we may see some damaging winds, but these storms are expected to weaken before arrival. Timing looks to be tonight in the 9-11pm range.

Second Chance:

Timing looks to be pretty unusual for severe weather but looks like the line will move into our area around 9-11am Tuesday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our counties in a:

  • 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles
  • 5-15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles

Third Chance:

If two wasn’t enough, another chance of severe weather looks to move into our area Tuesday night.

Main concern from this round would be damaging winds.

Overall:

The intensity of the second and third round highly depend on how well the atmosphere can recover from the previous round.

The main threats are damaging winds and isolated flash flooding, with a tornado or two possible. Higher severe chances exist to our west and south.

Stay connected tonight through tomorrow night. Things can and likely will change. No reason to let your guard down just because we don’t have the highest risk. Have multiple ways to receive warnings if one is issued for you.

Total rainfall amounts look to be 1.5-2″.

We’ll dry out Wednesday and begin our cool down to near-average temperatures. Next rain chance looks to be maybe Sunday.

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Rainy Pattern Starts Today, Kinda

For the next 6 days or so, we’ll get a little preview of spring, as temperatures shoot well above average into the 60’s.

girl hello GIF

We’ll also see rain chances pick up today and this afternoon. Won’t amount to much – if any. Just a quick passing by shower.

Friday and Saturday rain chances pick up a little bit more, best chances look to be Friday evening and Saturday AM. The more official start to our rainy pattern.

Models are in fairly consistent agreement that the rain will move out by Saturday afternoon, leaving your nighttime NYE plans dry, along with some nice temperatures in the upper to mid 50’s.

New Year’s Day, Sunday, will be a nice start to 2023, dry and highs in the mid 60’s.

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The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the 15% risk area to only include the tiniest sliver of Williamson and Davidson counties.

Models have slowed down on the timing of the system, and our severe risk, if any, wouldn’t be until Tuesday AM. This looks like a classic high-shear, low-CAPE set up for us. Things will probably change another ten times before Monday/Tuesday, we’ll keep you updated.

Rainfall totals for the next 7 days look to be in the 2-3″ range, as long as it all doesn’t come down in a few hours, we should be able to handle that just fine.

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A Good Break From Freezing Temps, Rain Chances Return End Of The Week

For at least the next 7 days, we won’t see the freezing mark, which is a welcome sight for many. For fans of winter, maybe not so much.

Rain looks to return Friday and Saturday. No severe weather or flooding concerns with this. Models are hopeful that the rain will move out before NYE night activities, this could change though.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us for a 15% chance of severe weather for Day 6, January 2nd, as another system moves into our area.

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Again, this is six days away, so a lot will change between now and then. Way too early for any specifics on timing or impacts. We’ll be keeping an eye on it and will update as needed. Typical Middle TN weather, going from talking about freezing temperatures to severe weather in just a matter of days…

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Winter Weather Advisory Until Noon, Warmer Weather Soon

Both of our counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory until noon today. Isolated snowfall amounts of one inch are possible in some isolated areas, but most places will be around half an inch.

We shouldn’t see any major travel impacts, but any snow that falls will stick, so take it easy on the roads and give yourself some extra time today. Snow should end around noon, and we may see temps briefly get above freezing, which will help with melting.

Temperatures will fall into the low 20’s again tonight, which will refreeze any moisture on the roads. Maybe some more flurries tonight, but no additional accumulation expected.

Be careful with pipes over the next couple of days. We’ll finally get above freezing which could expose pipes that have broken.

Tuesday we’ll dry out and really begin to start the warmup. Tuesday night and Wednesday night we’ll dip below freezing for at least the last time in 2022. A nice and deserved break.

We’ll make it to the 60’s by Thursday and will keep those high temps through the new year. Rain chances creep back in on Friday. Hopes are that the rain moves east by NYE, but confidence in that is low right now. We’ll get more of an idea on timing as we get closer.

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A Cold Christmas Brings A Warm New Years

Merry Christmas!

Movie gif. Chevy Chase as Clark in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation gathers with family members, and exclaims, "merry Christmas to all and to all a good night."

We’ll take waking up to temperatures in the upper teens, certainly feels like Christmas! Winds have died down, so wind chill isn’t much of a factor, but it’s still cold. Certainly not the 76° we had last year…but at least it’s not also a high of 15° like in 1983.

High temps will make it into the upper 20’s, no rain or snow. Officially, not a “White Christmas” since there isn’t an inch of snow on the ground, but it’s a lot closer than what we’ve had in recent years.

Temps will dip back into the teens tonight one last time for at least a little while. Tomorrow a clipper system moves through our area, bringing us a chance at maybe seeing snow, but impacts look minimal as it’ll be moving quick, and the Dry Air Monster should take care of most of it. Looks like maybe a dusting to half an inch. We should also (finally) get above freezing for a little bit, also helping minimize impacts.

Tuesday we’ll really begin our warming trend as temps will reach the low 40’s. They’ll increase a little every day until we reach the mid 60’s by late week. That’s almost as nice as a one-year membership to the jelly of the month club. Looks like we’ll have some rain chances as we ring in the new year, more details on that later.

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