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Emily Merz

I am a junior broadcast meteorology major with a communications minor at Mississippi State University.

“Yes, it’s going to be hot, but I think tomorrow and Thursday are hotter…” @NWSNashville

First, the rain chances.

The HRRR shows a clear day for us, with maybe a shower or storm popping up in random spots. Mid 90°s temps with a superhumid (for us) airmass — dewpoints in the low 70°s ugggghhh — is plenty of fuel for a pop up storm. Just going to be hard for one to form today. One clue: if it’s storming close enough to us in Kentucky, an outflow boundary will come flying south into town. That could create showers and a few lightningstorms. We’ll watch this and post updates on Twitter. read more

Low Probability Storms Today, with Low-Likelihood Non-Tornado Severe Probabilities (*updated, severe threat dropped)

Heat index up to 97° this afternoon. Same temps as the weekend but dewpoints over 70° will be to blame for making the humidity worse than it was this weekend.

A system of storms will be going through to our north, which could maybe bring us some pop ups in the afternoon/early evening, but it isn’t looking super likely. read more

Very, Very Hot

But first, a pre-forecast PSA

If I were to put “summer” in all caps, bold, underline, and italics, that’s what today will feel like. SUMMER. Heat index will almost reach 100, there is pretty much no chance of rain. At the time of writing this, we are not predicted to reach the heat index needed to issue a heat advisory (105), but we are very close. Highs in middle TN will vary in the 90s, and Nashville could hit 98. read more

Many Rain/Storm Chances, Not A Lot Of Clarity

More than 1″ fell early this morning per MRMS estimates.

More downpours and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. The HRRR sure thinks so:

Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain are the hazards with this. Water sports and other outdoor stuff away from enclosed shelters are most vulnerable today. Hail and tornado are not in the forecast, but we think tiny hailstones are possible should an updraft get particularly strong. read more