The snow target time is Friday morning.

The below NWS Nashville graf has good information for Middle Tennessee:

Takeaways for us in Davidson and Williamson Counties: read more

Morning rain will end during lunch. A few hit/miss showers may drive by your place this afternoon, otherwise cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine for some. HRRR model through 7 PM today below:

Colder air later this week, wind chills near freezing Weds morning with colder mornings after that. read more

Rain showers later today/tonight.

• 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
• 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
• 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
• 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

• 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
• 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

• 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
• 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
• 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
• 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more

A Great Lakes snowstorm may spin a little rain into Middle Tennessee Tuesday – no biggie here – HRRR model below:

Mild days, cold mid week mornings – near freezing – ahead:

A big system will plow through this weekend. Here it is: read more

Skies clearing today. Looks pretty good.

1. Monday morning. HRRR has a weak rain band tomorrow (Monday) morning. Inconsequential.

2. Tuesday morning. Cold brief rain if the HRRR is right (model cuts off before arrival):

3. Weekend rain. Timing and “accuracy” iffy at this range. A soaker is best bet. Not sure if Saturday or Sunday or both. May involve thunderstorms but no current severe concerns. Notice those pinks and blues as the system moves away – common false flag for wintry precip. More about this system tomorrow. read more

Subfreezing mornings Tue & Weds – hard freeze both mornings – many of us will be colder than that – coldest temps around sunrise – redboxed below are the 24° and 26° lows – then a warmup rest of the week. read more