Approaching Snow Event Looks Meh - But . . . It May Not Be

The snow target time is Friday morning.

The below NWS Nashville graf has good information for Middle Tennessee:

Takeaways for us in Davidson and Williamson Counties:

1. Dusting most likely result – snow in grass, mailboxes, decks – not gathering on most roads.
2. Some bridges and overpasses may be briefly slick IF all goes “right” for the snow event.
3. Snowshowers should be unevenly distributed, missing some, falling on others.
4. Or it could just be a very cold rain.

More deets from NWS Nashville:

This will be a snow/rain event, no sleet or freezing rain. Temperatures Friday morning will be in the low to mid 30s and will warm into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees by the afternoon. This will reduce the amount of snow showers and increase the coverage of rain showers.

NWS Nashville AM Forecast Discussion 12/27/23

Above freezing temps Friday will melt snow. Snow showers may end up as unfrozen water as flakes splat:melt.

HRRR model is not yet in range. It runs through 6 AM Friday. It shows snow still in KY by 6 AM Friday, which would put it into our area late morning Friday when surface temps are expected to warm above freezing, melting flakes:

Remember, it can snow (air below freezing) but then melt because the above-freezing ground cools slower than the air.

National Blend of Models: no meaningful local accumulation:

The Plateau — to our east — holds some snow because it’s at higher elevation.

The only thing that concerns me about this forecast is that we’ll have a very cold upper level low parked right on top of us as this snow comes through. Sometimes forecasts underestimate the amount of snow, and we end up getting more than the forecast.

As NWS Nashville says:

It is not uncommon for this type of setup to overachieve.

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