Subfreezing Mornings - Fire Danger & Drought - Rain Late Thu Into Friday - & Our Weekend EduGuess

Subfreezing mornings Tue & Weds – hard freeze both mornings – many of us will be colder than that – coldest temps around sunrise – redboxed below are the 24° and 26° lows – then a warmup rest of the week.

Drought continues – severe and extreme for Davidson and Williamson Co – air was so dry this morning we almost tied the Nov 27 record for driest precipitable water – if you squeezed out all the water from the atmosphere you’d only get 0.17″ from it – for reference that is duh-rye.

Fire danger remains – “there will be at least a marginal fire danger tomorrow owing to very low afternoon relative humidity values, but winds probably won’t be strong enough for red flag conditions” (NWS-Nashville) – outdoor burning is never OK in Nashville – looks like Williamson’s ban was lifted, source – either way, burning not a good idea.

Rain expected late Thursday into Friday – “The 13Z NBM [a weather model] gives BNA at 47% chance of measuring 1″ or more during that 24- hour period, and a 76% chance of at least 0.5″.” (NWS-Nashville) – Storms unlikely but due to our proximity to the low pressure center causing the rain, we may squeeze out a few bolts – no concerns about severe weather (hail, wind, tornadoes).

Below is the end of the 90 hour Euro as of midnight Thursdays night – suggests most of the rain will be Friday morning through the afternoon:

Weekend EduGuess – few drive by showers possible – more likely Sunday than Saturday – appears to be a weak system – need better data to determine weekend plans – would not alter any plans now.

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