The models keep things pretty quiet today through tomorrow morning. Here is the RAP model from Thursday night through Friday morning at 10am:
Friday – 63/78
The weather models (Euro, GFS, NAM and WRF) deliver scattered rain showers in and around us most of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, all thanks to a “shortwave trough” (low pressure) that’ll truck on through.
Thursday – 62/82
All four weather models (GFS, NAM, Euro, WRF) scatter light rain through middle TN during the afternoon and evening hours. These will be hit/miss showers – meaning we may or may not get wet. The odds of us getting wet are around 1 in 3. There may also be a few thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
A gorgeous day!
NWS has issue a extremely-rare-for-May Frost Advisory for overnight (early Monday morning):
...FROST AND RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... .AN UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. SOME PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION COULD BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP VERY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE.
The HRRR is still calling for periods of rain between 4pm Friday and 2am Saturday:
The HRRR has been overdoing the precip all day, and I expect that trend will continue tonight. We had 0.8″ forecast, but only 0.31″ is in the can now. More to come tonight (as you can see above). I think we will end up around 0.4″ to 0.5″.
With Steeplecase, Fiddin’ Fish 5K, a HUGE soccer tournament in Williamson County, ball games, parties, graduations, etc. happening this weekend, we’re all wondering: will it rain?
The best forecast comes from the NWS – Nashville. They consider all the models (which I detail below), and comes up with a consensus, intelligent, and reasoned forecast (in my opinion, anyway).
Pop-up afternoon storms should diminish after dark. The HRRR thinks a few showers may survive sundown and arrive from NW TN around 5am.
We will wake up to fog in the usual spots.
Daytime heating may set off scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through sundown. These will be of the hit or miss variety.
