The HRRR is still calling for periods of rain between 4pm Friday and 2am Saturday:
The HRRR has been overdoing the precip all day, and I expect that trend will continue tonight. We had 0.8″ forecast, but only 0.31″ is in the can now. More to come tonight (as you can see above). I think we will end up around 0.4″ to 0.5″.
With Steeplecase, Fiddin’ Fish 5K, a HUGE soccer tournament in Williamson County, ball games, parties, graduations, etc. happening this weekend, we’re all wondering: will it rain?
The best forecast comes from the NWS – Nashville. They consider all the models (which I detail below), and comes up with a consensus, intelligent, and reasoned forecast (in my opinion, anyway).
Pop-up afternoon storms should diminish after dark. The HRRR thinks a few showers may survive sundown and arrive from NW TN around 5am.
We will wake up to fog in the usual spots.
Daytime heating may set off scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through sundown. These will be of the hit or miss variety.
Very light, scattered showers or a thunderstorm possible today. Odds of one getting you are pretty low, but if it’s going to happen, the HRRR thinks 6pm is the most likely time:
Like today, the odds of rain are small. If it’s going to rain, early evening is the most likely time. Here’s the Hi-Res NAM showing Wednesday night at 7pm:
Thursday, Friday & SteeplechasedayThursday – High 82
Much like today and Wednesday — chance of rain or a thunderstorm, most likely in the late afternoon/evening hours.
Friday – High 77
Thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night. Our NWS was talking about it this morning:
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE ARRIVAL OF A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT . . . SLICING ACROSS THE MID-STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND USHERING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
I’ve had about 50 people ask: “What about Steeplechase?” Approximately 100% of them are women, all wondering what to wear.
Before we dive in, a disclaimer: I’m about to show weather models for Friday & Saturday. Weather models are never the Gospel Truth, and are certainly not to be relied upon 5 days away. They are a decent indication of what might happen.
The weather version of the
is a low pressure center. A few important differences between the Sit-n-Spin and a low pressure sit and spin include:
Similarities:
For the last several days, this particular low pressure center has been cut off from the winds which would push it into the Atlantic Ocean. Yesterday it was around Memphis. Today it crawled to E MS and N AL, which is around where all the models think it’ll be tomorrow as it drifts further east and spins light rain showers into middle Tennessee. Here’s the NAM model, which is a fair representation of the rest of the models:
A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 am Sunday. Here’s an official graphic:
It’s going to rain tonight and into the overnight hours. The ETA for Williamson, then Davidson, Counties is between 8pm and 9pm tonight. Follow along on Twitter for more frequent and detailed updates (@NashSevereWx).
