The models want to send us some rain in the middle of the night. For example, observe the RAP at 3 a.m.:
Gusty winds to 16 m.p.h. and cooler temps await.
There’s a chance of a few rain showers (but not storms) passing through late Thursday morning or afternoon (below: WRF at 4 p.m.). This should not be enough to rain out any Thursday night games:
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a “Slight” Risk for severe weather today.
The morning radar looks pretty clear. A few isolated rain showers may drive by.
Weather models form a broken line of scattered thunderstorms across Middle TN from around noon through dark. Some/Many of these should impact us, and might be severe.
Updated at 12:10 p.m.
Here is a Special Weather Statement from our NWS:
...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY AS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT THIS TIME...A TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3AM AND 8AM NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL STILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
It’s much more humid at 9 am this morning (dew point 70) than it was at any time yesterday.
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This morning’s weather balloon showed 2,843 j/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE. Think of CAPE as the building blocks which make storms. You usually only need 1,000 – 1,500 j/kg for strong storms to happen. Models predict we will have 3,500 j/kg soon, and up to 5,000 to 5,500 j/kg this afternoon. 3,500 is PLENTY of building blocks to make a strong to severe thunderstorm.
