Today
The high humidity we had this morning (dew points in the mid-upper 60s) usually sets off afternoon thunderstorms. That has not happened today. We’ve dodged the rain. So far.
The water vapor image tells the story:
Author: David
A Few Whack-a-Mole Rain/Storms Today May Miss Us
I’m feeling good about your soccer game, 10 year anniversary party, and late afternoon motorcycle ride into town, but you should not ignore the weather today.
Saturday Morning – 75 at 10am
Water vapor imagery displays the amount of moisture in various levels of the atmosphere. The more you get, the better your rain chances.
The Weekend: Wet, But Not Ruined
The models keep things pretty quiet today through tomorrow morning. Here is the RAP model from Thursday night through Friday morning at 10am:
Friday – 63/78
The weather models (Euro, GFS, NAM and WRF) deliver scattered rain showers in and around us most of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, all thanks to a “shortwave trough” (low pressure) that’ll truck on through.
Rain Chances Return + (uh-oh) Another Wet Saturday?
Thursday – 62/82
All four weather models (GFS, NAM, Euro, WRF) scatter light rain through middle TN during the afternoon and evening hours. These will be hit/miss showers – meaning we may or may not get wet. The odds of us getting wet are around 1 in 3. There may also be a few thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
It’s a Dry Heat; Rain Chances Thursday-Friday
Next Few Days: Dry & Warming Up. Chance of Rain Thursday.
Awesome Weather Ahead, Especially If You Like Frosty Monday Mornings
Mother’s Day – High of 65
A gorgeous day!
Monday – 38/70
NWS has issue a extremely-rare-for-May Frost Advisory for overnight (early Monday morning):
...FROST AND RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... .AN UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. SOME PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION COULD BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP VERY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE.
Most of the Rain is Gone - Only a Tiny Chance of Rain Remains
Off/On Rain Tonight. Clearing Out Tomorrow. Beautiful Sunday.
Tonight
The HRRR is still calling for periods of rain between 4pm Friday and 2am Saturday:
The HRRR has been overdoing the precip all day, and I expect that trend will continue tonight. We had 0.8″ forecast, but only 0.31″ is in the can now. More to come tonight (as you can see above). I think we will end up around 0.4″ to 0.5″.
