This morning a noisy complex of thunderstorm juuuust missed us. It passed to our southeast:
The HRRR deposits more rain on us around 10 a.m. (remember, use models for guidance, not gospel):
Full disclosure: the models haven’t been exactly helpful/accurate this morning. Other models deliver rain later in the afternoon.
Note — below is the morning update. More current information will be posted throughout the day on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
A non-severe thunderstorm cluster hugged the TN/KY border. Storms in the cluster are moving NE, and the system itself is struggling to make it south.
Our NWS believes “that main area of showers and thunderstorms to our north will generally remain across this area through noon…but can not rule out some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the metro Nashville area also during this time period. Will also continue to expect south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts to around 25 mph possible. So bike riders need to take this into account also.”
This will NOT be the main weather event today.
The main event comes late this afternoon/early evening, courtesy of a cold front approaching the Mississippi River, ready to push east towards us. Our NWS says:
A DEVELOPING AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ... WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ETA is a little difficult because storms may form out ahead of a main line. I think it may rain/storm at any time after noon, but more likely things should begin around 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. We will update the ETA on Twitter throughout the day.
This morning, the RAP has a well-after-dark ETA of 9 p.m.:
How bad will it be? Again, from our NWS:
SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST AND THEREBY PROVIDE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL.
It’ll definitely rain if another dying MCS shows up in the morning (that’s unlikely, brides). Expect another typical summertime slight chance of pop-up showers during the morning and afternoon hours.
A small minority of weather models deliver a passing afternoon shower, but don’t bet on it.
No rain appears on either short range model, the RAP (below) and the HRRR, through midnight:
Our NWS can’t rule rain out this afternoon, but if it happens, expect only 0.02″, which probably wouldn’t even melt the Wicked Witch of the West. Proceed with all outdoor activities.
There’s rain on the morning radar, but the NWS and the models say it’ll miss us.
In fact, the models predict dry weather today through midnight:
We may see a few brief late afternoon / early evening showers (from that energy you see in Texas/Oklahoma on the above map), but most of the models disagree and keep us dry. Rain and lightning would be the only real concerns (no severe weather). Don’t alter any outdoor plans.
A cool front will arrive from the Ohio River. The models disagree if rain will come along.
The HRRR predicts a few light, scattered showers this afternoon:
The RAP does not:
At 12:50 p.m., a few very light showers appeared along the Ohio River, crossing into Kentucky. Our rain chances are pretty low, and if we get a shower, it likely will not ruin tonight’s outdoor activities.
