Cold Mornings and Mild Afternoons

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Started out with temps below freezing this morning, but plenty of sunshine has propelled our temperatures into the mid to upper 50s.

This will be a reoccurring theme throughout the work week.

Rain chances will increase Saturday/Sunday thanks to a low-pressure system to our south. Usually around this time of year, if we mention a low-pressure system to our south, we’d normally have to talk about snow. However, with no cold air in place, we’ll be stuck with just rain chances. read more

Tornado Watch Until 7pm, Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon/Evening

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A Tornado Watch has been issued for both of our counties until 7pm tonight.

Our probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center are:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
  • 10% of a tornado within 25 miles (10% or greater chance of EF2+ tornado)

Our main threat today continues to be damaging straight-line winds, but severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. read more

Check Your Storm Drains and Gutters, Rain’s Coming!

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Forecast rain amounts have increased in the last 24 hours, with widespread 2-3 inch rainfall expected between Friday evening and Sunday evening.

Now that the leaves have fallen, this is a good time to check the drainage on your property and clear out any gutters/drains/culverts/ditches that are designed to carry water away. While the flood threat is low, clogged drains could create an issue. read more

Rain, Cold Mornings, Weekend Rain Event (storm/snow comments)

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Rain showers later today/tonight.

  • 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
  • 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
  • 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
  • 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

  • 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
  • 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

  • 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
  • 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
  • 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
  • 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more