Tonight
We’ve seen a few flurries this morning, but the afternoon and early evening will mainly just be dry and cold.
A new Winter Weather Advisory is effective at 9 p.m. tonight, ending 9 a.m. Sunday morning.
Another Winter Weather Advisory Tonight/Overnight
Looking Ahead to Saturday Night
Update coming after 11 a.m. NWS Conference Call…
Saturday
3am 29 . 6am 28 . 9am 31 . Noon 35 . 3pm 35 . 6pm 33 . 9pm 32 . Midnight 31
No rain in the morning or afternoon.
More rain arrives after dark tomorrow night, some time between 10 p.m. Saturday and 2 a.m. Sunday. During this time, we may see freezing rain. This may impact early Sunday morning travel. More details on this tomorrow.
Travel Problems To Begin At 4 p.m.
**1:19 p.m. Update**
From the NWS:
“For Nashville metro area . . . temperatures are mostly in the 33-35 degree range . . . with the freezing rain slowly approaching.
“There have been a few reports of ice forming at the highest elevations of west of I-65.
Minor Ice Accumulations Tonight. 3 Rounds of Winter Wx Through Monday.
**8:28 a.m. Update**
HRRR still thinks we will see some wintry weather around 2-3 p.m. Shown below: 3 p.m.
It might fall as a wintry mix, but HRRR still thinks temps will be 34-35 at 3 pm:
Evening Update. Word To Your Mother.
I apologize* for the titles of the last two posts. (*not really. And while we’re here, you should tell your mother about the ice potential Friday and Saturday nights).
Evening updates in red. Everything else, you read earlier this afternoon.
Ice/Sleet Friday Night and Saturday Night
Today’s Rain / Storms
We’ve already seen heavy rain and wind courtesy of a cold front, which cut temps by 20 degrees.
Now that the cold side passed, there is no longer a strong/severe thunderstorm threat.
We will see two separate rounds of winter weather. One Friday night, the other Saturday night.
Friday Night Ice: Will We Dodge a Bullet?
Thursday – Rain Begins – Morning Low 63 / Afternoon High 63 (yeah, the same!)
6am 63 . 9am 63 . Noon 63 . 3pm 62 . 6pm 53 . 9pm 48
Showers should begin around 6 a.m.. Here’s the RAP model turning on the morning rain:
New Details on Friday Night’s Freezing Rain/Sleet Potential
Friday Night
Updated data has arrived. It’s a bit encouraging compared to what we were seeing yesterday, but still too close for comfort and complacency.
One thing all the models seem to agree upon — for now — is no snow. Sleet or Freezing Rain is the threat.
Update on Heavy Rain, Ice Storm Potential Fri & Sat Nights
We’ve heated past 70 today. After noon, the official temp was 75.
That’s going to change.
Thursday & Friday – Heavy Rain
The rain will begin in the morning, and should continue – mostly unabated – through Friday night and into Saturday morning. Totals will approach 3″, possibly more in some areas:
Rain/Flooding + 2 Potential Rounds of Weekend Icing/Sleet/Snow
This afternoon, our NWS began its Area Forecast Discussion by saying:
“Forecast confidence is increasing daily about the fact that Middle Tennessee is staring down the barrel of a miserable several days starting late Wednesday night.”