Updated data has arrived. It’s a bit encouraging compared to what we were seeing yesterday, but still too close for comfort and complacency.
One thing all the models seem to agree upon — for now — is no snow. Sleet or Freezing Rain is the threat.
WPC Friday Night
This map suggests the Freezing Rain will barely graze — or miss entirely — Davidson or Williamson Counties…although it’s very, very close.
NAM Midnight Friday
This model suggests freezing line may barely reach us, creating very little, if any, ice accumulation. Upper Left: Ice. Upper Right: Freezing Rain. Bottom Left: Rain. Bottom Right: Snow.
GFS Midnight Friday
This model lacks the resolution to distinguish rain from winter precip on a county-by-county basis, but in a broad sense it supports us being the end of the frozen stuff. At 6 p.m., it suggests only rain. By midnight, we could see some freezing rain or sleet (but, again, the resolution is poor):
By 6 a.m. Saturday, it’s gone:
EURO (not pictured due to licensing issues)
Either sleet or freezing rain at 6 p.m. The model shows moderate to heavy rainfall occurring at 6 p.m., with temps at 5,000 feet above freezing, surface temps below freezing.
By midnight, almost all the rain is gone. Any lingering precip would fall as sleet or snow (temps at 5,000 feet will be below freezing) in Davidson County; however, temps at 5,000 feet may still be above freezing in Williamson County, causing sleet or freezing rain.
The Euro has been very aggressive all week with this system — it wants to give us all types of winter precip.
NOTE: Those at elevation (Joelton, SW Williamson Co, those on a hill) may see different types of precipitation than the rest of us at “regular elevation.”
The Forecast Could Be Much Worse
Friends/Enemies to our NW are forecast to get the worst of it:
We are currently excluded from the Winter Storm Watch . . .
. . . but considering a Watch is in effect to our adjacent counties, there is little comfort. Given the models outlined above, and what we think we know about what will happen, excluding us makes good sense.
Officially, however, freezing rain and sleet is forecast to begin at 6 p.m. and continue until midnight Friday. Accumulations appear to be none or slight. Let’s keep it that way.
Don’t Forget About Thursday’s Rain
About 3″, maybe more, is possible from Thursday morning through Friday night:
Officially, 2.82″ of rain is forecast for Nashville through Friday at 6 p.m. Williamson County is forecast to get 2.79″. Flooding may be an issue.
I’ll do another update of the rain, Friday night wintry mix, and include Saturday night’s wintry mix forecast after I eat/before bed tonight.
Categories: Forecast Blogs