Today’s Rain / Storms
We’ve already seen heavy rain and wind courtesy of a cold front, which cut temps by 20 degrees.
Now that the cold side passed, there is no longer a strong/severe thunderstorm threat.
We will see two separate rounds of winter weather. One Friday night, the other Saturday night.
Winter Weather, Round One – Friday Night
Rain will continue Friday. At night, the shenanigans begin.
Late this morning, our NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory, effective Friday from 4 p.m. to Midnight.
- 0.1″ of accumulating ice.
- 1/2″ of snow and sleet is possible.
- Hazardous travel conditions will develop, especially late Friday evening.
- Minor power interruptions are possible.
Based on the model data we have, here’s the timing:
The location and timing of this freezing line is not certain. It may shift 50 miles one way or another, which could be good – or very bad – for us.
Higher elevations, especially Joelton and NW Williamson County, will see greater ice accumulations.
We think this first round of winter precip will end around midnight.
Areas to our NW (Clarksville, Camden, Dover, and Erin) are under an Ice Storm Warning (we are not). It’ll be a lot worse there.
We do not expect rain Saturday morning or early afternoon. Temps will peek above freezing around noon, and stay there until the sun goes down.
Then comes Round 2.
Winter Weather, Round Two – Saturday Night / Sunday Morning
Saturday night, precip will rush into Middle TN from the south and southwest. Temps will reach freezing by sundown.
We’ll probably need another Winter Storm Watch, and possible warnings, for Saturday night.
Of the two rounds, this one will be worse. Travel Saturday night, and especially overnight into Sunday morning, is going to be a mess. The NWS emphasized travel to church Sunday morning may not be possible.
The below SPIA index is only for utility/power. It is NOT a travel impact.
The Orange (2) area means “Scattered utility interruptions possible…typically lasting less than 12 hours.”
The Yellow (1) area means “Some local utility interruptions possible…typically lasting a few hours.”
The good news is we’re forecast to warm up into the low 40s by noon, which will help melt any ice/sleet/snow.
Don’t forget about flooding potential.
2″ to 3″ of rain is forecast through Friday.
An additional 1″ to 2″ is expected Saturday night and Sunday.
Localized creeks and tributaries may approach – or reach – flood stage.
Here are the rainfall totals through Tuesday morning. We may see around 5″:
Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs