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Awesome Weather Ahead, Especially If You Like Frosty Monday Mornings
Mother’s Day – High of 65
A gorgeous day!
Monday – 38/70
NWS has issue a extremely-rare-for-May Frost Advisory for overnight (early Monday morning):
...FROST AND RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... .AN UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. SOME PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION COULD BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP VERY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE.
Most of the Rain is Gone - Only a Tiny Chance of Rain Remains
Off/On Rain Tonight. Clearing Out Tomorrow. Beautiful Sunday.
Tonight
The HRRR is still calling for periods of rain between 4pm Friday and 2am Saturday:
The HRRR has been overdoing the precip all day, and I expect that trend will continue tonight. We had 0.8″ forecast, but only 0.31″ is in the can now. More to come tonight (as you can see above). I think we will end up around 0.4″ to 0.5″.
Off/On Rain Tonight. Saturday Looks (Mostly) Rain-Free
Rainy Friday, Drying Out Saturday (We Hope!)
With Steeplecase, Fiddin’ Fish 5K, a HUGE soccer tournament in Williamson County, ball games, parties, graduations, etc. happening this weekend, we’re all wondering: will it rain?
The best forecast comes from the NWS – Nashville. They consider all the models (which I detail below), and comes up with a consensus, intelligent, and reasoned forecast (in my opinion, anyway).
Soggy Steeplechase, But It Might Not Be Raining
Tonight
Pop-up afternoon storms should diminish after dark. The HRRR thinks a few showers may survive sundown and arrive from NW TN around 5am.
Thursday – 58/83
We will wake up to fog in the usual spots.
Daytime heating may set off scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through sundown. These will be of the hit or miss variety.
Attention Ladies! Cute Boots Needed for Steeplechase
PM T’Storms Possible This Week; Rain Friday; Wet Steeplechase
Today – High of 71
Very light, scattered showers or a thunderstorm possible today. Odds of one getting you are pretty low, but if it’s going to happen, the HRRR thinks 6pm is the most likely time:
Wednesday – High of 78
Like today, the odds of rain are small. If it’s going to rain, early evening is the most likely time. Here’s the Hi-Res NAM showing Wednesday night at 7pm:
Thursday, Friday & Steeplechaseday
Thursday – High 82
Much like today and Wednesday — chance of rain or a thunderstorm, most likely in the late afternoon/evening hours.
Friday – High 77
Thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night. Our NWS was talking about it this morning:
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE ARRIVAL OF A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT . . . SLICING ACROSS THE MID-STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND USHERING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Iroquois Steeplechase: Wet Friday, Dry Saturday (at least for now)
I’ve had about 50 people ask: “What about Steeplechase?” Approximately 100% of them are women, all wondering what to wear.
Before we dive in, a disclaimer: I’m about to show weather models for Friday & Saturday. Weather models are never the Gospel Truth, and are certainly not to be relied upon 5 days away. They are a decent indication of what might happen.