The convective outlook for today places most of Davidson and Williamson Counties in an area of enhanced risk. There is an enhanced risk for brief spinup tornadoes and damaging straight line wind. Let’s get into the details.
Two Rounds of Potentially Severe Weather
Damaging Straight-Line Winds Main Threat Wednesday PM/Overnight, Multiple Rounds Possible
Rest of today and Wednesday morning will be calm. Let’s dive into the severe threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us with probabilities of “x” within 25 miles tomorrow.
- 30% chance of damaging (58mph+) straight-line winds
- 5% chance of severe (1″+) hail
- 2% chance of a tornado
There is also a 15% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles.
Severe Chances Return Wednesday
Probably a dry rest of the evening, HRRR (below) thinks a few showers could slide in. They’d be quick and no big deal.
Tues.
Percentage wise, rain chances appear pretty low tomorrow. However, the HRRR disagrees.
Damaging Straight-Line Wind/Hail Threat Monday AM
Storms thankfully missed us to the south today, leaving us with a dry evening.
Monday AM
We’ve been outlooked with a
- 15% chance of damaging (58mph+) straight-line winds within 25 miles
- 5% chance of severe (1″+) hail within 25 miles
- we are not included in any tornado probabilites
Tomorrow will be a conditional threat AKA there are more “ifs” than normal.
The latest HRRR model (above) has the storms forming on top of us Monday morning. Where these storms form will be very important.
Uncertainty Tonight, Severe Storms Possible Sunday and Monday
Tonight
Tonight we have been outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles.
HRRR has been back and forth about tonight. Earlier runs showed a cluster of storms moving in around 8 or 9. Now, thinks we stay dry.
Severe Storms Possible Sunday, Muggy Weekend
Not a bad Friday evening. Dewpoints are a bit muggy but temp wise not half bad. We’ll stay dry overnight.
HRRR model (above) thinks rain/storm chances return Saturday AM, lasting thru the afternoonish, conveniently leaving us with a dry Saturday PM. Not worried about severe weather, but a strong storm or two with some gusty winds and lightning cannot be ruled out. When thunder roars, go indoors.
Rain Chances, Miserable Dewpoints Hangin’ Around
Some rain, at times heavy with lightning moving thru this morning.
HRRR model (above) thinks this will continue for a couple more hours, starting to taper off around noon.
Afternoon and evening looks dry for the most part, maybe a few stray showers but NBD.
Heavy Rain + Damaging Wind Threat Thursday, Rain Sticks Around This Weekend
Quiet and dry rest of the evening.
Things quickly change tomorrow morning as a cluster of rain/storms moves in.
HRRR model (above) thinks heavy rain, along with the potential for gusty winds moves in just in time for AM rush hour…
Rainy Pattern Begins Wednesday
If you enjoy dry weather, the past few days have been great for you. If you enjoy the rain, the rest of the week is for you.
HRRR model (above) shows the majority of the rain staying west of us, leaving us with just some NBD light showers throughout the day.
Nice End of July/Start to August, Rain Chances Increase Wednesday
Note: We’ll slowly be transitioning to more of an afternoon/evening release on weekday blogs, with staying in the morning for the weekend. We’ll still be tweeting as needed, and will publish special blogs in the morning if necessary.
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